Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: Charley's future
      Sat Aug 14 2004 12:43 AM

Temperatures from the buyos from the Natl. Data Buoy Center (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov) show that water temperatures are fairly steady offshore at between 80.5 and 82 degrees, getting cooler north of Cape Hatteras. They are also slightly cooler a bit closer to shore. Interesting to note that one of the buoys off of NC failed due to Hurricane Alex!

Not sure where recon is - a flight was scheduled to take off at 2145z and investigate between 0z and 6z, partially over land, but that has not happened. The next recon, over water, was scheduled for takeoff at about 0645z; I think this will probably be the next flight into the storm. The investigation is supposed to have fixes at 9z, 12z, and 15z - so it may be overnight before we get another read on Charley.

Models do look at SSTs, but remember that most of these are global models and not tropical models. The oceans aren't as important of a consideration in these models, nor are there many sources of data over the waters (due to the inherent lack of observing sites), meaning these observations and forecasts may not be so good. No global models can pick up a hurricane - the storm has to be put into the model. But, track forecasts are usually decent and intensity forecasts from the specialized models are usually decent as well, yet there remains room for improvement.

Rest is definitely a good thing, and I think I'm about to go get some myself. Good luck everyone, and here's hoping Earl isn't long for the coast either. Something tells me it is, however.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 14 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing bigjohnflorida   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Chatty   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Tornadoes Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:01 PM
. * * South Carolina rjp   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Arcadia FL Update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Early Rain Band recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Ominous Picture La Girl   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Ronn   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Weather Conditions Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Anonymous   Fri Aug 20 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:04 PM
. * * Peak Gusts? RichD   Sat Aug 14 2004 07:20 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Roberta   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Karen   Sun Aug 15 2004 12:37 PM
. * * joepub and wxwatcherdeux LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Jeffmidtown   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Roberta   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Kimster   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Earl next rickonboat   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Earl next StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Earl next rickonboat   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Earl next GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Earl next Rabbit   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Earl next James88   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Earl next BillD   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Final Analysis on Charley FlaRebel   Sat Aug 14 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley Londovir   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Arcadia damage Aunt Debbie S   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage LI Phil   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Viper radar Pics of Charley WOW 1234   Sat Aug 14 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Viper radar Pics of Charley WOW Tom U.   Mon Aug 16 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley bsnyder   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:15 PM
. * * TD5 update Jamiewx   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley DroopGB31   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Evacuations bsnyder   Sat Aug 14 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Evacuations Ricreig   Mon Aug 16 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Rich B   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos PFSThunder   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:09 AM
. * * lee/charlotte/desoto/hardee HanKFranK   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: lee/charlotte/desoto/hardee Kimster   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:34 AM
. * * TD 5 Model runs Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Model runs LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Model runs 52255225   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Re: TD5 model runs Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD5 model runs joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Here we go again!! Jamiewx   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Terri   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! 52255225   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Wxwatcher2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Floridacane   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Cape Canaveral report troy2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Cape Canaveral report troy2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Impressive Wind Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Danny-boy LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind Frank P   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:23 PM
. * * NOAA Weather Radio Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re:Local Storm Reports danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re:Local Storm Reports Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re:Charley danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re:Charley Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re:Charley palmetto   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re:Charley Steve   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:46 PM
. * * Re:Charley wxman007   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re:Charley danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re:Daytona Weather danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re:Peak Winds at airports danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio BabyCat   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Some reports.... wxman007   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... Ormond Suzie   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... BabyCat   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... SirCane   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions BillD   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Orlando report Clark   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Charley's future Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future SirCane   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past DroopGB31   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Charley Recon Fix danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Danielle & Earl LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Danielle & Earl AngB   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Danielle & Earl James88   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:57 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future Steve   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:35 AM
. * * More reports Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Hunter's Creek Area StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:17 PM
. * * charlie Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: charlie DMFischer   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: charlie alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: charlie Clark   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:40 PM
. * * charlie/ORlando Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: charlie Aunt Debbie   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: charlie OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Hey, Orlando waiting... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Hey, Orlando waiting... MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions AgentB   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions h2ocean   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture BillD   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Tanbark   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:37 PM
. * * SW Orlando StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Disney under the gun... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Disney under the gun... Wxwatcher2   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band Chad   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia FL Update Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Michelle   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Flights LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Flights GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Polk County Colleen A.   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Polk County SirCane   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:07 PM
. * * close to home HanKFranK   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: close to home -- storm report spookmcg   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:42 PM
. * * An update and a thanks LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Polk County WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Polk County StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Polk County DMFischer   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Flights WeatherNLU   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Flights AmateurJohn   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Arcadia FL WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Flights StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Stormhound... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Highest Winds WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Flights Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing palmetto   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:01 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 430 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 49823

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center