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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

next week
Fri Aug 20 2004 05:58 PM

it is unlikely a system will develop over the weekend. the developing pattern will favor subtropical developments.. maybe close in (frontal leftovers, shortwave splits near the east coast perhaps). steve pointed this out to me.. with the ridging forecast in about a week near the eastern seaboard anything nearby would be serious trouble. but for now, just a potential trouble region based on the pattern. some other outside subtropical possibilites.. the deep layer system that is shearing danielle.. which is entraining plenty of energy as it hovers near 30/45.
the eastern atlantic waves are suffering from variable easterlies at different altitudes.. low level surge pushed the first wave rapidly west behind earl, second wave is an out of phase itcz energy bubble and a denuded low level turning axis.. both are now just drifting westward. the energetic wave about to come off africa should overtake it's forerunner.. should put some more energy in phase and maybe start an organization trend. with the trudging, slightly backed appearance of the eastern atlantic itcz i'd say the area is somewhat primed.. with the onset of mjo negative things should improve.
anyhow, with the upcoming pattern, retrograding ridges and transient, fast moving systems in the subtropics that split when they slow should be the rule. this is the pattern that favors stair-stepping longtrackers, and hybrid development at times. i may be wrong, but think we'll get a taste of one or the other next week.
HF 2158z20august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner	MikeC	Fri Aug 20 2004 05:58 PM
48W 10N	Cocoa Beach	Wed Aug 18 2004 03:26 PM
First Cane.	LadyStorm	Wed Aug 18 2004 06:06 AM
Re: First Cane.	GuppieGrouper	Wed Aug 18 2004 07:57 AM
Re: First Cane.	MikeC	Wed Aug 18 2004 10:07 AM
Re: First Cane.	Allison	Wed Aug 18 2004 11:55 AM
Re: WAVES	LONNY307	Wed Aug 18 2004 03:30 PM
Re: WAVES	Steve hirschb.	Wed Aug 18 2004 04:26 PM
Re: WAVES	LONNY307	Wed Aug 18 2004 05:44 PM
Re: WAVES	LI Phil	Wed Aug 18 2004 03:55 PM
Re: WAVES	Keith234	Wed Aug 18 2004 05:57 PM
Re: WAVES	met	Wed Aug 18 2004 06:11 PM
i'm hearin' ya.	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 18 2004 06:44 PM
Re: i'm hearin' ya.	Anonymous	Wed Aug 18 2004 08:14 PM
Re: i'm hearin' ya.	BillD	Wed Aug 18 2004 09:53 PM
Re: RELIEF!!!	danielw	Wed Aug 18 2004 09:10 PM
Re: RELIEF!!!	rmbjoe1954	Thu Aug 19 2004 06:21 AM
Re: RELIEF!!!	Steve hirschb.	Thu Aug 19 2004 07:05 AM
question on mjo	LoisCane	Thu Aug 19 2004 07:46 AM
Re: question on mjo	Steve	Thu Aug 19 2004 09:50 AM
Re: question on mjo	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 19 2004 10:07 AM
cyclone... please clarify	bobbistorm	Thu Aug 19 2004 02:29 PM
Re: cyclone... please clarify	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 19 2004 03:27 PM
Re:CHANGES	LONNY307	Thu Aug 19 2004 04:13 PM
out there a bit	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 19 2004 06:25 PM
Re: out there a bit	RedingtonBeachGuy	Thu Aug 19 2004 07:16 PM
Re: out there a bit	Anonymous	Fri Aug 20 2004 04:23 PM
question and.. beautiful new wave over Africa	bobbistorm	Fri Aug 20 2004 04:53 PM
next week	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 20 2004 05:58 PM
Re: next week	rmbjoe1954	Fri Aug 20 2004 07:14 PM
Re: next week	GuppieGrouper	Fri Aug 20 2004 08:50 PM
Re: next week	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 01:49 AM
New Wave Off Africa	rmbjoe1954	Sat Aug 21 2004 06:16 AM
Re: next week	Keith234	Fri Aug 20 2004 09:17 PM
Re: next week	LadyStorm	Sat Aug 21 2004 06:13 AM
Re: next week	Keith234	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:52 AM
Someone start a counter	LoisCane	Thu Aug 19 2004 10:48 PM
NOAA Updated Hurricane Forecast	LI Phil	Fri Aug 20 2004 12:25 PM
Re: cyclone... please clarify	Anonymous	Thu Aug 19 2004 02:54 PM
Re: question on mjo	Anonymous	Thu Aug 19 2004 11:39 AM
Re: RELIEF!!!	Anonymous	Thu Aug 19 2004 06:19 AM
Re: RELIEF!!!	k___g	Wed Aug 18 2004 09:54 PM
Re: RELIEF!!!	1234	Thu Aug 19 2004 12:43 AM
Re: RELIEF!!!	Sissy	Thu Aug 19 2004 01:23 AM
Re: WAVES	GuppieGrouper	Wed Aug 18 2004 06:04 PM
Re: WAVES	Clark	Wed Aug 18 2004 06:36 PM
Power back	Maxx NFM	Tue Aug 17 2004 10:26 AM
Re: Power back	joepub1	Tue Aug 17 2004 01:07 PM
Re: Power back	Steve hirschb.	Tue Aug 17 2004 02:50 PM
Re: Power back	AlphaCane	Tue Aug 17 2004 04:29 PM
Re: Power back	Ronn	Tue Aug 17 2004 05:17 PM
quieter still	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 17 2004 06:06 PM
Re: quieter still	Cycloneye	Tue Aug 17 2004 06:26 PM
Re: quieter still	1234	Tue Aug 17 2004 08:27 PM
wave in the atlantic	bobbistorm	Tue Aug 17 2004 07:16 PM
Re: wave in the atlantic	h2ocean	Tue Aug 17 2004 09:43 PM
Re: wave in the atlantic	LI Phil	Tue Aug 17 2004 09:50 PM
Re: never know about being in Harms way.	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 17 2004 10:26 PM
Re: wave in the atlantic	met	Tue Aug 17 2004 10:00 PM
my forecast update	Rabbit	Tue Aug 17 2004 02:59 PM
Re: my forecast update	Anonymous	Tue Aug 17 2004 03:59 PM
Re: my forecast update	LI Phil	Tue Aug 17 2004 05:03 PM
Re: my forecast update	Anonymous	Tue Aug 17 2004 03:23 PM
Re: Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner	LI Phil	Mon Aug 16 2004 07:15 PM
Re: Charley aftermath, Earl and new wave	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 16 2004 08:35 PM
Re: Stories	RedingtonBeachGuy	Mon Aug 16 2004 08:06 PM
personal/business	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 16 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Stories	recmod	Mon Aug 16 2004 08:35 PM
Re: Stories	BillD	Mon Aug 16 2004 09:38 PM
Video	Jamiewx	Mon Aug 16 2004 10:34 PM
Re: Video	BillD	Mon Aug 16 2004 11:09 PM
Re: Danielle and earl	danielw	Tue Aug 17 2004 03:05 AM
Re: Danielle and earl	GuppieGrouper	Tue Aug 17 2004 07:21 AM
Earl's future	LI Phil	Tue Aug 17 2004 10:22 AM
Re: Earl's future	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 17 2004 01:22 PM
Re: Earl's future	LI Phil	Tue Aug 17 2004 02:49 PM
Re: Earl's future	Rabbit	Tue Aug 17 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Earl's future	gary	Tue Aug 17 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Video	LI Phil	Mon Aug 16 2004 10:54 PM
Re: Stories	Anonymous	Mon Aug 16 2004 09:32 PM
Re: Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner	Former Floridian	Mon Aug 16 2004 07:49 PM

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