Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Activity Again
Sat Aug 21 2004 08:11 AM
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Monday early AM update
Still no invest up on the wave near 27w, though it is trending toward organization. It's should continue to move slowly westward, and is likely our next named system. As Ed has mentioned, Danielle's remnant low has continued to persist and is throwing convection again as it is starting a second recurvature into the deepening mid-oceanic trough. It has a slight chance to regenerate. At this point the only other convincing concern for the week we're entering is the chance of development off the east coast from stalled front remains, under the strong ridge forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. this week.
It is quite likely that we will have an active system by midweek.
HF
Sunday Update - 12:30AM
Caribbean wave looks like it may not survive the shear - not exactly unexpected. What was unexpected was the lack of movement with the strong wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands - system hasn't moved much in over 12 hours, so scratch the idea about rapid development. I still think that it will get there, but at a much slower pace - the GFS did move it slowly for a few days. The GFS also projected that a strong mid-Atlantic trough would bisect the Atlantic ridge and the new cyclone would turn north into this weakness in the ridge in a couple of days. The UKMET projects that the trough will not be as strong and that the ridge will hold - and moves the new system generally westward - I tend to favor the latter option. Earlier on Saturday, Danielle became an open wave and advisories are no longer being issued.
Original Post
Looks like the short quiet period is about to end. Seldom have I ever commented on a sure thing, however, the wave currently exiting the west coast of Africa fits this category. It has excellent structure and could reach Tropical Storm strength before the weekend is over. The GFS, which has done well with tropical systems this year, intensifies this wave to hurricane strength by mid-week. The system will encounter some shear for the next 24 to 36 hours, but after that, the green light for rapid development is on. The system should track west northwest - perhaps even briefly northwest for the next couple of days. The GFS takes the system more northwesterly, but upper air patterns suggest that an eventual track to the west northwest or even west should prevail. The system has the potential to become a large hurricane.
An active tropical wave has lifted out of the ITCZ in the last 48 hours and is currently moving to the west northwest at 15 knots in the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system has a good convective envelope that has held together overnight and it has a possible low level circulation near 14.4N 68.4W at 21/11Z. It faces some shear ahead of it. This shear should peak on Sunday and then slowly decline. If the system can slowly develop, it should move toward the northern Yucatan peninsula and then move more toward the northwest later in the week - perhaps toward the south Texas coast. Keep in mind that the development probability on this system is still rather low at the moment.
Tropical Depression Danielle is still around - drifting in the central Atlantic. Danielle may continue to drift for quite a few more days and has a small chance to briefly regain TS strength, but her ultimate fate is northward.
It looks like the week ahead will soon turn busy.
ED
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 23 2004 12:38 AM)
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