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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

new wave
Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM

i don't know about classified system before the weekend is out.. but yeah that's an invest later today. think gfs has the wave speed all screwed up.. but otherwise ed the prog you gave looks as good as any as far as track goes. i'm with you on the inevitable development.. but if it goes off say east of 40w that reduces it's chances of ever making it across.
the wave near 65w came to life overnight and has impressive convection (but the ramrod through shear look as well). that's what mjo can do for a system. if enough of it's energy gets into the nw caribbean and doesn't blow across cent. america, as gfs is weakening the low-level ridge periphery and turning it up into the yucatan/w. gulf area... yeah, there's a mid-late week shot at it doing something.
at the same time, trough energy left behind near the southeast coast will have a good bit of ridging building to the north.. the sort of thing that can cause it to hang in place and fester. by the middle of the week i wouldn't be surprised to see some of the disturbed weather from the shortwave currently traversing the southeast looking mighty interesting...
not going to ignore the kink in the itcz near 35w, ahead of the future invest/potential frances system exiting africa... gfs was interested in it a couple days ago.. if the wave to the rear doesn't overtake this high amplitude/low convection feature, it will meet favorable mjo conditions closer to the islands and possibly come to life as well. most likely it gets overtaken.. but just in case..
by the way.. last adv. on danielle.. still a good low-level swirl left. as that starts recurving, wouldn't be surprised to see it redevelop convection.. in a baroclinic environment of course, but still essentially a tropical feature. the upper trough to it's west that has been giving it hell is forecast to get a reinforcing shot and dive sw.. like a feeder into the TUTT (which has been noticeably absent this month).. it could also drag some disturbed weather southward through the subtropics... as a minor note.
anywho.. we'll get at least one storm next week.. possibly two. real stretch for more.
HF 1524z21august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Activity Again	Ed Dunham	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM
Re: Activity Again	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 10:56 AM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Activity Again	Rabbit	Mon Aug 23 2004 12:06 PM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:10 PM
is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	bobbi	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:29 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:48 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:00 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:50 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	LONNY307	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:24 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:34 PM
longtracker season	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:14 PM
Re: may not be a fish	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:08 PM
Re: may not be a fish	bobbi	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:10 AM
Re: may not be a fish	Hardcore	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:19 AM
Subtropical System and Frank	Keith234	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:31 AM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:32 PM
50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:04 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:12 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:19 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:32 PM
this is reasonable	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:26 PM
Re: this is reasonable	joepub1	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:40 PM
Re: this is reasonable	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:48 PM
Re: this is reasonable	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:00 PM
frances forthcoming/southeast coast	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM
Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast	Cycloneye	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:03 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:10 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:26 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:52 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Clark	Tue Aug 24 2004 07:31 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 08:57 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:12 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:01 PM
TD 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:11 PM
Re: TD 6 DELETED	danielw	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:35 PM
Re: TD 6	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 11:02 PM
TD Advisory #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:27 PM
Re: TD 6 Discussion #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:32 PM
we have T.D. 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:45 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:51 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM
Back	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Steve	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:16 PM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	SirCane	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:31 PM
may not be a landlubber either	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:34 AM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:33 PM
Quick post from the 'sick bed.'	LI Phil	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Activity Again	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Activity Again	danielw	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:54 AM
Carribean activity this am	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:34 AM
cape verde system in the works	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:43 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:53 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Gulf Coast	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:55 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 12:18 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	LI Phil	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:49 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	Tropics Guy	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:06 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	GuppieGrouper	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:45 PM
epac and mjo	bobbi	Sun Aug 22 2004 11:33 AM
Re: epac and mjo	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 22 2004 12:15 PM
Re: epac and mjo	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM
Last dance with Frances?	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Last dance with Frances?	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:32 PM
Is the wave dancing?	LoisCane	Sun Aug 22 2004 06:37 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 22 2004 10:22 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:07 AM
96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:39 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:41 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:47 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:13 AM
new wave	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM

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