i don't know about classified system before the weekend is out.. but yeah that's an invest later today. think gfs has the wave speed all screwed up.. but otherwise ed the prog you gave looks as good as any as far as track goes. i'm with you on the inevitable development.. but if it goes off say east of 40w that reduces it's chances of ever making it across. the wave near 65w came to life overnight and has impressive convection (but the ramrod through shear look as well). that's what mjo can do for a system. if enough of it's energy gets into the nw caribbean and doesn't blow across cent. america, as gfs is weakening the low-level ridge periphery and turning it up into the yucatan/w. gulf area... yeah, there's a mid-late week shot at it doing something. at the same time, trough energy left behind near the southeast coast will have a good bit of ridging building to the north.. the sort of thing that can cause it to hang in place and fester. by the middle of the week i wouldn't be surprised to see some of the disturbed weather from the shortwave currently traversing the southeast looking mighty interesting... not going to ignore the kink in the itcz near 35w, ahead of the future invest/potential frances system exiting africa... gfs was interested in it a couple days ago.. if the wave to the rear doesn't overtake this high amplitude/low convection feature, it will meet favorable mjo conditions closer to the islands and possibly come to life as well. most likely it gets overtaken.. but just in case.. by the way.. last adv. on danielle.. still a good low-level swirl left. as that starts recurving, wouldn't be surprised to see it redevelop convection.. in a baroclinic environment of course, but still essentially a tropical feature. the upper trough to it's west that has been giving it hell is forecast to get a reinforcing shot and dive sw.. like a feeder into the TUTT (which has been noticeably absent this month).. it could also drag some disturbed weather southward through the subtropics... as a minor note. anywho.. we'll get at least one storm next week.. possibly two. real stretch for more. HF 1524z21august
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