let me qualify that earlier commentary on the future invest/potential frances. gfs is developing the hell out of it.. getting it very powerful, and recurving it near 40w. that's because it initializes it and drifts it slowly for the first few days (unlikely it will move that slowly).. and in spite of tremendous ridging in the western atlantic, it considers a general weakness in the eastern atlantic to be enough to let it never get west. this is somewhat feasible.. but i'm not ready to swallow that line just yet. if it develops early and gains a lot of latitude by mid week.. yeah, fully possible it will curve up at 40w. but this is classic gfs.. early recurvature of systems is a historic failure of the model (though it has been doing well this year). but i'm going to hedge my bets that it gets a lot further west. HF 1543z21august
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