It has a chance. Tip reached 190mph -- the projections for this one take it to 195mph. Note, however, that Tip actually had recon fly into the storm and measure the winds, while many storms that have come close since then have not. These other storms have also had higher satellite intensity estimates (T-numbers) than Tip, so there is some recent debate as to which storm is actually the strongest on record, with about 4 viable contenders.
The pressures have been following the estimates from the Dvorak scale; the intensity estimates I've seen are at T7.0, though the JTWC has some at T7.5 (155kt/879mb pressure, those previously referenced). T8.0 maxes out the listed scale, though it is possible to have an estimate higher (I've heard of T8.3, for instance) than that.
If the storm were to reach T8.0 and the JTWC upgraded it from there, the winds would be at 170kt and the pressure at 858mb -- both of which would break the previously stated records. To get an idea for how strong 858mb is, in inches of mercury that is 25.34"...needless to say, very low.
Recurvature is expected soon, but until then, there is the chance for further strengthening. It's twin to the west formed too far west to significantly churn up the waters in front of Chaba, so it's certainly got a shot. As I stated in another post however, I only wish we had recon to fly into this storm...there would be some amazing data, I'm sure. As is, recon is going into a pathetic looking Estelle tomorrow, and no recon program exists in the WPac.
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Re: Typhoon Chaba
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