Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
Mon Aug 23 2004 08:00 PM
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The CV wave is being recurved by the GFS which maintains its natural tendency to recurve systems forming in the far eastern Atlantic. With the redevelopment of a TUTT in the central Atlantic, that goes without saying. Storms that form early will find the weakness. But those who wait a while, will come underneath whatever weather patterns are in the western Atlantic. Btw, check out the global SSTA's today on the OTIS Model.
Bastardi was supposed to release his landfall intensity scale update text today with the video due out tomorrow or Wed. But instead, he only issued a 14 mintue tropical udpate. If what his "Remainder of the Season" update says comes true, then we are in line for a historical landfalling year as far as effects (remember, his landfall intensity scores are based 50% on pressure and 50% on NHC classification modified by actual observations in a specific zone). Of note, Texas has been reduced (the idea that with each passing day toward the fall, chances of a Texas hit diminish). However, Texas is still within the TS-Cat 1 range.
The Louisiana zone is the biggest mover. It was originally slated for 3.7 but now is at 11. This corresponds with the eventual threat shifting eastward to the north central gulf (in line with 85, 95, 98, and especially 2002 where the Water Temperature Profiles are very close). The Mississippi-Panama City Beach zone is equal the LA zone (11 corresponds to between Cat 1 and Cat 2 conditions occurring. This doesn't mean that Cat 1or Cat 2 conditions will be felt with only one storm as it could be the cumulative effects of multiple storms - TD's, TS's, Cat 1's, etc.). The Carolinas are 3rd in remaining intensity with the SW coast of FL tied with Texas for 4th. Cumulative TS effects are still predicted for the Eastern Seaboard, New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
So as noted above, if the US and Canadian coastlines reach his "remaining landfall" totals, 2004 will go down as a record (historical) season for landfall effects. The average (and I think this is over 40 or 50 years) was 36.3 until last year nudged it up to 37.2. He's already scored over 60 points with around 66 points to go. If he's clued in properly, strap on dem dere seatbelts.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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