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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

frances forthcoming/southeast coast
Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM

sort of amazed ssd hasn't rated 96L yet. be kind of unusual for a system to go from unrated to a classified system. agree this should be a depression at 5pm.. solid convection, some banding features, obvious wind closure in the low cloud field nearby.. far be it from me to understand why this won't be t.d. 6 at five.
my version of the forecast for this thing is as such: wnw around 15 to past 40w early thursday, nw til the weekend.. mid oceanic trough fills, west early next week. it's that simple. intensity harder to prog.. think hurricane by thursday, but conditions deteriorate during the weekend as it gets some upper sw-erly shear (unless my track idea is badly mistaken).. then recovering conditions next week as it goes westward under the ridge. this will probably, almost surely, be a track north of the islands.
there is a low forming east of jacksonville/brunswick today, around 30.5/80. some upper westerly shear present.. which ought to slowly taper down over the next couple of days. i'm thinking this feature is the development threat for this week near the east coast. should remain quasi-stationary through early thursday, possibly begin taking on a tropical appearance. slow developer if it's going to do anything... if the model ideas are right it should move north or nnw.. affect the carolinas friday or into the weekend.
nothing much else. danielle hasn't redeveloped. weak wave ahead of 96L noted in the discussion as having a piece of trough to the north. lower end may flare up as it nears the islands later on, upper end as it nears the mid oceanic trough. expect little though. models still developing the wave following 96L, but it's still a day or two from exiting.
HF 1854z24august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Activity Again	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM
Re: Activity Again	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 10:56 AM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Activity Again	Rabbit	Mon Aug 23 2004 12:06 PM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:10 PM
is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	bobbi	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:29 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:48 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:00 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:50 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	LONNY307	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:24 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:34 PM
longtracker season	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:14 PM
Re: may not be a fish	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:08 PM
Re: may not be a fish	bobbi	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:10 AM
Re: may not be a fish	Hardcore	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:19 AM
Subtropical System and Frank	Keith234	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:31 AM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:32 PM
50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:04 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:12 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:19 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:32 PM
this is reasonable	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:26 PM
Re: this is reasonable	joepub1	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:40 PM
Re: this is reasonable	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:48 PM
Re: this is reasonable	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:00 PM
frances forthcoming/southeast coast	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM
Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast	Cycloneye	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:03 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:10 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:26 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:52 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Clark	Tue Aug 24 2004 07:31 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 08:57 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:12 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:01 PM
TD 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:11 PM
Re: TD 6 DELETED	danielw	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:35 PM
Re: TD 6	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 11:02 PM
TD Advisory #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:27 PM
Re: TD 6 Discussion #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:32 PM
we have T.D. 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:45 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:51 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM
Back	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Steve	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:16 PM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	SirCane	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:31 PM
may not be a landlubber either	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:34 AM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:33 PM
Quick post from the 'sick bed.'	LI Phil	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Activity Again	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Activity Again	danielw	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:54 AM
Carribean activity this am	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:34 AM
cape verde system in the works	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:43 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:53 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Gulf Coast	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:55 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 12:18 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	LI Phil	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:49 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	Tropics Guy	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:06 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	GuppieGrouper	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:45 PM
epac and mjo	bobbi	Sun Aug 22 2004 11:33 AM
Re: epac and mjo	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 22 2004 12:15 PM
Re: epac and mjo	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM
Last dance with Frances?	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Last dance with Frances?	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:32 PM
Is the wave dancing?	LoisCane	Sun Aug 22 2004 06:37 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 22 2004 10:22 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:07 AM
96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:39 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:41 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:47 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:13 AM
new wave	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM

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