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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

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Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM

Hey everyone-back posting here for the first time since pre-Charley in Florida. We were okay in our location...but a couple of trees were blown down in our back yard (away from house, fortunetly). Additionally, we were without power until the Monday after the storm hit. Boy did it get hot in the house...back to tropics!

96L is pretty interesting at this time. It isn't developing as quickly as some thought it was this morning, although I'd say it is safe to bet on TD 6 coming into official existence by 11:00 PM this evening or 5:00 AM tomorrow morning. Looks like the low may be experiencing a dirunal decrease in convection, although the very last IR image showed new convection forming near the center. The shear environment ahead is looking quite favorable, which should allow for a steady strengthening after the system really gathers itself. This leads me to my next point...

The center of this system is low at this point, latitude-wise. The lastest sat images don't really show much in the way of a northerly component in the track yet. The latest GFS run shows the system curving towards the nw and n from 40-43 W. I pretty much agree that this will begin to track with a more northerly component by then, but how much of a northerly component will depend on how strong the system is as well as how much the Central Atlantic ridging breaks down. Also...the system may not get pulled northward rapidly, but it may do so under 10 mph. If this does indeed occur, I'll have serious doubts as to whether any possible troughing would be around long enough for the storm to be completely picked up.

Like some others on this board, I think that there exists a decent chance that this system turns more westward in the long-range. Don't be surprised if NHC forecasts fish at first...followed by more westerly tracks.

Hey, though, 96L could just as well fall apart!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Activity Again	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM
Re: Activity Again	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 10:56 AM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Activity Again	Rabbit	Mon Aug 23 2004 12:06 PM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:10 PM
is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	bobbi	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:29 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:48 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:00 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:50 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	LONNY307	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:24 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:34 PM
longtracker season	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:14 PM
Re: may not be a fish	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:08 PM
Re: may not be a fish	bobbi	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:10 AM
Re: may not be a fish	Hardcore	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:19 AM
Subtropical System and Frank	Keith234	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:31 AM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:32 PM
50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:04 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:12 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:19 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:32 PM
this is reasonable	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:26 PM
Re: this is reasonable	joepub1	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:40 PM
Re: this is reasonable	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:48 PM
Re: this is reasonable	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:00 PM
frances forthcoming/southeast coast	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM
Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast	Cycloneye	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:03 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 03:10 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:26 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:52 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Clark	Tue Aug 24 2004 07:31 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 08:57 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:12 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:01 PM
TD 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:11 PM
Re: TD 6 DELETED	danielw	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:35 PM
Re: TD 6	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 11:02 PM
TD Advisory #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:27 PM
Re: TD 6 Discussion #1	recmod	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:32 PM
we have T.D. 6	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:45 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:51 PM
Re: we have T.D. 6	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM
Back	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Steve	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:16 PM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	SirCane	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:31 PM
may not be a landlubber either	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:34 AM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:33 PM
Quick post from the 'sick bed.'	LI Phil	Mon Aug 23 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Activity Again	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Activity Again	danielw	Sat Aug 21 2004 10:54 AM
Carribean activity this am	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:34 AM
cape verde system in the works	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:43 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:53 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Gulf Coast	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:55 AM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 12:18 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	LI Phil	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:49 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	Tropics Guy	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:06 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	GuppieGrouper	Sat Aug 21 2004 09:45 PM
epac and mjo	bobbi	Sun Aug 22 2004 11:33 AM
Re: epac and mjo	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 22 2004 12:15 PM
Re: epac and mjo	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM
Last dance with Frances?	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Last dance with Frances?	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:32 PM
Is the wave dancing?	LoisCane	Sun Aug 22 2004 06:37 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 22 2004 10:22 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:07 AM
96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:39 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:41 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:47 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 AM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:13 AM
new wave	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM

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