Saw a comment about the "troughy" nature to this season in the thread somewhere. The predominant pattern at 500mb (mid-levels) across the U.S. this summer has been of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. This has led, in general, to more "troughiness" along the coast, as short wave troughs (and associated surface systems) ride around the base of the upper longwave trough across the Southeast.
This would favor a ridge in the central/western Atlantic, which would steer anything that made it to, say, the Leewards towards the west. Storms would either recurve further out to sea, like Danielle, or make it near to the coast and recurve then (Charley, Bonnie). Note that this is a big simplifcation of the overall pattern, but serves well to explain a couple of things here.
Now, however, we are seeing the opposite pattern take shape, with a near-zonal to ridge in the east/trough in the west pattern. This would favor a trough in the western/central Atlantic and a ridge out by the Cape Verdes, leading to an increased likelihood for fish spinners, at least in the short-term (again, a simplication of things, but a fair one at least). Anything near the coast, however, would tend to keep a western track -- save for any possible development off of the coast in the immediate short-term (i.e. the lows off of the Ga & NC/SC coasts) while the pattern changes.
The overall pattern tends to change every 10-14 days or so, meaning I think we'll see an increased likelihood for some long-track storms a bit further down the road, closer to the peak of the season. Not ruling one out now, but feel it's less likely.
Just a few thoughts.
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