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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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EriktheFled
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Re: we have T.D. 6
      Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM

<<Fled, is this based on sound meterological reasoning or just a gut feel...either way it's OK, was just wondering on what you are basing that statement.>>

I won't lie, it's based on a gut feeling according to the way the few storms we've already had have acted. Of course, as another poster has mentioned, there is a constant oscillation between high and low amplitude pattern.

However, even for the past several seasons, the general pattern has been for trofs off the East Coast to steer storms out to sea, a factor which Gray himself has mentioned in his reports as being the reason far fewer major hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast--in particular, the East Coast--since 1995 than would be dictated by the long-term averages.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Activity Again Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Activity Again Anonymous   Mon Aug 23 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Activity Again James88   Mon Aug 23 2004 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Activity Again Rabbit   Mon Aug 23 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Activity Again James88   Mon Aug 23 2004 03:10 PM
. * * is the cape verde way a real slow mover? bobbi   Mon Aug 23 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? Keith234   Mon Aug 23 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? Steve   Mon Aug 23 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? Frank P   Mon Aug 23 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? LONNY307   Mon Aug 23 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? Steve   Mon Aug 23 2004 05:34 PM
. * * longtracker season HanKFranK   Mon Aug 23 2004 07:14 PM
. * * Re: may not be a fish Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 23 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: may not be a fish bobbi   Tue Aug 24 2004 09:10 AM
. * * Re: may not be a fish Hardcore   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:19 AM
. * * Subtropical System and Frank Keith234   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical System and Frank scottsvb   Tue Aug 24 2004 12:32 PM
. * * 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early Frank P   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early Anonymous   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early Frank P   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early Anonymous   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:32 PM
. * * this is reasonable Frank P   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: this is reasonable joepub1   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: this is reasonable Anonymous   Tue Aug 24 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: this is reasonable rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 24 2004 02:00 PM
. * * frances forthcoming/southeast coast HanKFranK   Tue Aug 24 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast Cycloneye   Tue Aug 24 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 24 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD EriktheFled   Tue Aug 24 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Aug 24 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00 Clark   Tue Aug 24 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00? Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 24 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00? LI Phil   Tue Aug 24 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00? Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:01 PM
. * * TD 6 Jamiewx   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Re: TD 6 *DELETED* danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: TD 6 HanKFranK   Tue Aug 24 2004 11:02 PM
. * * TD Advisory #1 recmod   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: TD 6 Discussion #1 recmod   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:32 PM
. * * we have T.D. 6 Jamiewx   Tue Aug 24 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: we have T.D. 6 LI Phil   Tue Aug 24 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: we have T.D. 6 EriktheFled   Tue Aug 24 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00 Kevin   Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Back Kevin   Tue Aug 24 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00 Steve   Tue Aug 24 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical System and Frank SirCane   Tue Aug 24 2004 12:31 PM
. * * may not be a landlubber either HanKFranK   Tue Aug 24 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover? Frank P   Mon Aug 23 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Quick post from the 'sick bed.' LI Phil   Mon Aug 23 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Activity Again Cycloneye   Sat Aug 21 2004 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Activity Again danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 21 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Carribean activity this am Frank P   Sat Aug 21 2004 11:34 AM
. * * cape verde system in the works HanKFranK   Sat Aug 21 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: cape verde system in the works Frank P   Sat Aug 21 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: cape verde system in the works Gulf Coast   Sat Aug 21 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: cape verde system in the works Frank P   Sat Aug 21 2004 12:18 PM
. * * Re: cape verde system in the works LI Phil   Sat Aug 21 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system Tropics Guy   Sat Aug 21 2004 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 21 2004 09:45 PM
. * * epac and mjo bobbi   Sun Aug 22 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: epac and mjo GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 22 2004 12:15 PM
. * * Re: epac and mjo James88   Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM
. * * Last dance with Frances? rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 22 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Last dance with Frances? James88   Sun Aug 22 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Is the wave dancing? LoisCane   Sun Aug 22 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Is the wave dancing? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 22 2004 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Is the wave dancing? Keith234   Mon Aug 23 2004 08:07 AM
. * * 96L invest for east atlantic wave Cycloneye   Mon Aug 23 2004 08:39 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave Anonymous   Mon Aug 23 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave Cycloneye   Mon Aug 23 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave Anonymous   Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave Keith234   Mon Aug 23 2004 09:13 AM
. * * new wave HanKFranK   Sat Aug 21 2004 11:25 AM

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