>>> For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.
Luis, you funny. It lists your location right next to your post 
All kidding aside, I don't think you can breathe easy until the system has actually tracked west of PR. However, based on the current modeling, you should be spared most of the bad weather.
BTW, watching TWC, and we have had four hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far...tying the record for the most August hurricanes in the basin. Food for thought? Could Gaston break the record?
People up and down the East Coast really need to think about their preps...Said it before and I'll say it again, anything the models are indicating past 120 hours should be considered speculation...and the 72 hour forecasts still have a fairly large margin for error.
Frances is going to become a major hurricane before the weekend is over...perhaps some similarity to other canes from oh, say, 1992, 1999 & 2003. Names being withheld to protect the guilty. You know which ones I'm talking about.
Frances is a classic CV storm...whether she makes the classic CV track remains to be seen. However, from the models and the discussions, it appears Frances will strengthen, possibly considerably, for at least the next 48 hours. Upper level conditions are favorable for development. She should continue to track northwest for at least the next day or two, at which point we can probably expect some due west movement...that's when things get dicey and it will become time to fish or cut bait. By 72 hours, we should know, with a fair degree of confidence, whether the area from Hattaras south to Miami or Hattaras north to Nova Scotia may be the preferred destination.
By the end of the weekend, the trof is forecasted to back off and the ridge will build in...hence the westward component. At such time, Frances' future will become more clear.
Few things are a certainty now, but I'm fairly confident this is an East Coast hit. I'm also fairly convinced it could be another major hit...god do I hope I'm wrong with that. A couple of posters, Clark being one, mentioned they just don't have a good "feel" about this one, and I totally agree. There is no meterology involved there, just knowing what these long tracking CV storms are capable of. Got a bad feeling about this, and I've had that feeling ever since 96L was first classified.
Anyway, we've got 10-13 days or so before we receive Frances' answer to "Where are you going to go?" so it's wait and see time. In the meantime, we may have Gaston brewing off of the Carolina's (though to my mind, Gaston should be a GOM storm, destination n'awlins...or as Steve informed me...new oar-leeens).
Everyone start getting more sleep than usual...Frances may promise some looonnngg nights ahead.
Be safe everyone,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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