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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
threats
      Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM

close in: t.d. 7 is meandering.
the system is progged to go west and may or may not do this.. seeing model interpretations of invest 98L to the east indicating a binary interaction of the two. it may re-develop further south of it's current position. the nhc forecast has a recurving path.. my guess is that it will move more slowly and be less quick to respond to nearby changes in upper flow by the proximity to it's neighbor. expect it to organize at or slightly slower than indicated by official guidance and stay offshore longer as well. lots of subsidence in the area may keep it in check somewhat. may or may not get carried out by the westerlies as progged by the approaching shortwave.. potential to hang out longer than indicated.. especially if it interacts much with the system to the east.
further out: 98L.. potential system.
modeling has been less vigorous with this system, but i'm thinking it may be wrong to have less confidence. an upper vortex has drifted southwest overhead of the surface system, and like t.d. 7 it is now in an outflow-enhanced area. this system has a good chance to start developing tomorrow as it moves generally west. the more it develops, the more t.d. 7s current prog is thrown out the window. end result can easily be a system that moves NE of t.d. 7 (which should be gaston tomorrow) and gets carried out in it's stead near hatteras early next week.
thoughts on td 7 and 98L are what i'll call unique... i usually don't stray that far from the official, but have some weird ideas about these systems i can't shake. probably two courses of crow, but who's counting?
far out but getting closer: cat3 frances.
already beginning eyewall replacement cycles.. makes me doubt it will make cat 5 status.. thinking 4. purely a hunch, not something to take me to court on. long range prog right now is further south than what i was envisioning for the system early in the week.. much further south. a labor day weekend landfall of this system is what i'm going to go with. i'm not going to put in a location until the system is around 70w.. but am thinking the east coast of florida at this point. that will shift north if anything. safest bet is always the north carolina coast as a cat 2, but until i can see the floyd/isabel scenario taking shape.. and it is looking rather unlike that track (though also unlike andrew, which i keep hearing but don't buy into). we have a week to watch this thing draw closer and fine tune it.. but until modeling starts poking holes in that ridge i'm becoming convinced that somebody gets nailed.
time to go post a challenge. we've got some bullets to dodge.
i'll shorten and borrow the usual parting comment from fox news' shepherd smith: stay aware.
HF 0325z28august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Recon on Gaston Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston RevUp   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances Models Maitland   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Getting Ready for Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances k___g   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Reality Check, Lets not jump the gun... Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up FlaRebel   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:04 PM
. * * from the NWS Melbourne Discussion at 3pm Jamiewx   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength StormLover   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Officially a CAT IV LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Robert   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM
. * * New Orleans area forcast.... long term Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM
. * * The Sun Sets on Frances Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Gaston and Frances zacros   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM
. * * eyewall rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: eyewall Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: eyewall ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM
. * * HOLY 5H!+! LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 MikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:14 PM
. * * cat 5's are rare.....this is a big August rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Frances Cat. 4 Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ticka1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Gaston LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Golly.. RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Floridacane   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. jlauderdal   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: 0615z Satellite Obs danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:03 AM
. * * So far...Frances is on track rmbjoe1954   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:09 AM
. * * saturday AM situation HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Kevin   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:09 AM
. * * observations? RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: observations? SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: observations? Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: observations? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:30 AM
. * * 9:30 update HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Floyd vs. Frances VADavid   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 AM
. * * NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Southern4sure   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * still a TD at 11? Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:44 AM
. * * TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up caneman   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRRi   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances edwinberrios   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances Frank P   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances JohnW   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM
. * * threats HanKFranK   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: threats scottsvb1   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: threats meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRR   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances VADavid   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM

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