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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1299
NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS
      Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND T.D. SEVEN...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL THE WAY
UP TO 300 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS...DUE TO THE WSW FLOW.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

Basically Frances is espected to take the path of least resistance, and should track around the outer edge of the high pressure ridge... IF it move back northward as discuss above, then Frances will be on the lower edge being steered off to the west or wnw or nw, depending on the position and strength of the ridge..

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Recon on Gaston Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston RevUp   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances Models Maitland   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Getting Ready for Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances k___g   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Reality Check, Lets not jump the gun... Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up FlaRebel   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:04 PM
. * * from the NWS Melbourne Discussion at 3pm Jamiewx   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength StormLover   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Officially a CAT IV LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Robert   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM
. * * New Orleans area forcast.... long term Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM
. * * The Sun Sets on Frances Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Gaston and Frances zacros   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM
. * * eyewall rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: eyewall Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: eyewall ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM
. * * HOLY 5H!+! LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 MikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:14 PM
. * * cat 5's are rare.....this is a big August rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Frances Cat. 4 Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ticka1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Gaston LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Golly.. RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Floridacane   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. jlauderdal   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: 0615z Satellite Obs danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:03 AM
. * * So far...Frances is on track rmbjoe1954   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:09 AM
. * * saturday AM situation HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Kevin   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:09 AM
. * * observations? RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: observations? SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: observations? Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: observations? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:30 AM
. * * 9:30 update HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Floyd vs. Frances VADavid   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 AM
. * * NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Southern4sure   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * still a TD at 11? Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:44 AM
. * * TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up caneman   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRRi   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances edwinberrios   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances Frank P   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances JohnW   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM
. * * threats HanKFranK   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: threats scottsvb1   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: threats meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRR   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances VADavid   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM

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