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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength
      Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM

Unfortunately, no. All that the recon can do is provide updates on the current intensity and structure of the storm; it's left to forecasters to use their own skill and the available products (models, observations, etc) to make a forecast. It's noteworthy to note that this is the second blown forecast of a storm in this region this year -- the recon's "flight level" was just a few hundred meters, meaning it's very likely we have a high-end tropical storm at 5pm, blowing past the forecasts. It's track is still up in the air.

However, the strength of this storm may well have an impact on the future track of Frances. As Gaston is picked up by the approaching trough to the west and becomes extratropical, a boundary may well be left behind/strengthened by the merging/extratropical transition process. How far south this extends and how long Gaston lingers around will play a role in whether or not it affects Frances. It's yet another kink thrown into the future forecasts of Frances that the NHC - and, well, most of us - did not expect.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Recon on Gaston Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston RevUp   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances Models Maitland   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Getting Ready for Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances k___g   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Reality Check, Lets not jump the gun... Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up FlaRebel   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:04 PM
. * * from the NWS Melbourne Discussion at 3pm Jamiewx   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength StormLover   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Officially a CAT IV LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Robert   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM
. * * New Orleans area forcast.... long term Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM
. * * The Sun Sets on Frances Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Gaston and Frances zacros   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM
. * * eyewall rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: eyewall Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: eyewall ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM
. * * HOLY 5H!+! LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 MikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:14 PM
. * * cat 5's are rare.....this is a big August rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Frances Cat. 4 Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ticka1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Gaston LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Golly.. RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Floridacane   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. jlauderdal   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: 0615z Satellite Obs danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:03 AM
. * * So far...Frances is on track rmbjoe1954   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:09 AM
. * * saturday AM situation HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Kevin   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:09 AM
. * * observations? RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: observations? SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: observations? Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: observations? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:30 AM
. * * 9:30 update HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Floyd vs. Frances VADavid   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 AM
. * * NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Southern4sure   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * still a TD at 11? Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:44 AM
. * * TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up caneman   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRRi   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances edwinberrios   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances Frank P   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances JohnW   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM
. * * threats HanKFranK   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: threats scottsvb1   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: threats meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRR   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances VADavid   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM

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