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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: Gaston update
Sun Aug 29 2004 08:21 AM

man, you really are a night owl. storm has probably deepened some more since the last advisory, d rating supporting a minimal hurricane and radar presentation looking about the same to me. 5am advisory will probably bump the system up to hurricane status.. it's window for intensification is closing though as its circulation begins to move onshore. my landfall point was initially tybee/savannah, then edisto sound, now.. looks like isle of palms, sullivans island, or bulls bay. didn't handle that one too well... intensity will probably be close though.
98L looking more ragged than earlier, wouldn't be surprised if next d numbers drop, unless the convection refires. westward steering with this system should deteriorate from here on, though it may get quite close to the hatteras area.. low may open up or entrain ahead of gaston. just the same a solid convective burst could drive the system to tropical storm status.. gulf stream ahead so this is possible.
frances a cat 4.. no surprise. fluctuations from here out.. talk of the cat 5 status exists but that's something i have to see to believe. cat 5s are such rarities it's sort of unkosher to forecast them, official or not.
watching chaba's path as it nears japan. should it teleconnect the primary threat area will be florida to south carolina.. labor day weekend of course. my primary is the east coast of florida.. with the margin of error to the north if anything... not going to bet on south florida below west palm beach. 3-4 range.
HF 0821z29august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	MikeC	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:21 AM
We have TS Hermine	Jamiewx	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:01 PM
Frances 5 pm Discussion	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:13 PM
Re:SITE	John C	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:52 PM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:54 PM
Re:SITE	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:51 PM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:56 PM
Re:SITE	Ricreig	Mon Aug 30 2004 12:03 AM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Mon Aug 30 2004 12:10 AM
Re:SITE	HCW	Mon Aug 30 2004 12:13 AM
Re:Plan of the Day	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:59 PM
We have HERMINE	MikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	jlauderdal	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:28 PM
NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb	bloodstar	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM
Re: winds at 70?	john03	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:52 AM
which way?	john03	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:03 AM
Re: which way?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:05 AM
Re: NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:44 AM
Frances-One For the Record Book	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:07 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:23 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:29 AM
Re: Take a look here	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:33 AM
Re: Take a look here	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:24 AM
gaston...	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:49 AM
Re: gaston...	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:02 AM
Frances	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Frances	EMS	Mon Aug 30 2004 01:24 AM
Re: Frances	LadyStorm	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:09 AM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:03 PM
Re: Frances	LadyStorm	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:13 PM
Re: Frances	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:08 PM
Re: Frances	Kevin	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Frances	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:09 PM
Re: Frances	cat	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:48 PM
Re: Frances	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:04 PM
Re: Frances	cat	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:32 PM
GOM	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:19 PM
glad sight is back up	LoisCane	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:37 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	Kevin	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:58 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:01 PM
Re: Glad sight is back up	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:41 PM
Re: Frances	MikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:46 PM
Re: Frances	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:53 PM
Frances	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:16 PM
Re: Frances	LBlack	Mon Aug 30 2004 12:16 AM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:54 PM
Re: Frances	Cocoa Beach	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:29 PM
Re: Frances	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:16 PM
Re: Frances	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM
Re: Frances	Hurric	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:11 PM
Re: Frances	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:36 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:12 PM
Re: Frances	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:24 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:37 PM
Re: Frances	ShaggyDude	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:42 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:49 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:19 PM
Re: Frances	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:27 PM
Re: Frances	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:35 PM
Re: Frances	Jeanine	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:33 PM
Re: Frances	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:27 PM
Being sarcastic here. J/K around	Robert	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:12 PM
Re: Being sarcastic here. J/K around	melissa1211	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:14 PM
Re: Frances	Maitalnd, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:05 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:00 PM
Re: Frances	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 PM
Re: Frances	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:13 PM
Re: Frances	LBlack	Sun Aug 29 2004 11:54 PM
Re: Frances	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:49 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:47 PM
Re: Frances	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:15 PM
Re: Frances	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:25 PM
Re: Frances	anony	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:50 PM
Re: Frances	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:57 PM
moving west now..	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:55 PM
Re: moving west now..	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:00 PM
Re: moving west now..	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:37 PM
Re: moving west now..	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:35 PM
Re: moving west now..	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:50 PM
Re: moving west now..	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:11 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:28 PM
Re: Frances	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 PM
Re: Frances	troy2	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:45 PM
Re: Frances	RevRandy	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:31 PM
Re: Frances	GRFLA	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:58 PM
overall tropics	Rabbit	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:20 PM
Re: overall tropics	scottsvb1	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 PM
08L.NONAME	Rabbit	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:37 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:06 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Rabbit-logout	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:17 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:18 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	James88	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:14 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Ed in Va	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:42 PM
Re: overall tropics	Keith234	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:32 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Frances	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 AM
Re: Frances	Hurric	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:33 AM
Gaston Weather	zacros	Sun Aug 29 2004 10:44 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:18 AM
Evening...	LI Phil	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:00 AM
Re: Evening...	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:59 AM
GFS track...	LI Phil	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:14 AM
Re: Evening...	javlin	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:12 AM
Re: Evening...	LI Phil	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:54 AM
Re: Evening...	meto	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:07 AM
Historical comparisons to Frances	LoisCane	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:15 AM
Re: Historical comparisons to Frances	SC Bill	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:46 AM
Re: Historical comparisons to Frances	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:26 AM
Re: Forecast Advisory	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:52 AM
Re: Forecasted slowdown in forward speed	LoisCane	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:18 AM
ps... gfdl	LoisCane	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:45 AM
Re: ps... gfdl	Steve	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:29 AM
Re: Hard to follow that	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:50 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	javlin	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:05 AM
Next recon?	JayBB	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:26 AM
Re: Next recon?	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:27 AM
Re: Next recon?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:41 AM
Re: Gaston update	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:09 AM
Re: Gaston update	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:21 AM
Re: Night Owl	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:29 AM
Re: Next recon?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:09 AM
Re: Gaston	Weather2	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:51 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:56 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:06 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:19 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:34 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:56 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	javlin	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:43 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	palmetto	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:03 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:06 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:43 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	palmetto	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:10 AM
Re: Names	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:08 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:37 AM
Re: Sat loops	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 AM
Re: Forecast Advisory	JustMe	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:18 AM
Re: Forecast Advisory	FlaRebel	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:16 AM
Recon	zacros	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:58 AM
Re: Evening...	zacros	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:53 AM
Curious thought from an Idle mind	DMFischer	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:49 AM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	VolusiaMike	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:54 AM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:13 AM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:49 AM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:01 AM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:15 AM
UKMET	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 28 2004 11:58 PM

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