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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

Re: Frances
Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM

Did you happen to read any of the posts on S2K last night? One of the mets who posts there said that NHC has a lot of internal guidance...apparently that (internal) guidance showed a consensus track towards the Carolinas. I have a MAJOR beef with the way Jarvinen handled the discussions if the internal models were indeed showing a curve towards the north during the 4-5 day range. He offered NO synoptic reasoning whatsoever to justify a more nw track at the end of the period. Therefore I'm really not buying the NHC track at this time.

To boot, the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF all show a South Florida landfall. At some point, all of these models have shown some type of success in forecasting hurricane paths.

Time to refute NHC 4-5 day position even more...Frances is clearly moving westerly this morning. If this does indeed cross the 20N-60W Hebert Box, then the threat to Florida is probably greatly increased. Ironically enough, NHC's forecast track shows Frances narrowly missing this box. I'm thinking that this poses more of a threat to the Leewards than expected, but they should still escape the full effects.

Longer range, just how much Florida is threatened/possibly mauled will depend greatly on where the next amplification is. By late next week, we should definitely see a trough in the midwest region. How strong the high is along with Frances' location would determine exactly where landfall would occur. I can see the storm curving NW at some point, possibly cutting through a decent part of the state after making landfall. It could possibly reach the Gulf, but I don't see a threat to the northern Gulf at this time. I could be wrong though.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	MikeC	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM
We have TS Hermine	Jamiewx	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:01 PM
Frances 5 pm Discussion	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:13 PM
Re:SITE	John C	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:52 PM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:54 PM
Re:SITE	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:51 PM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:56 PM
Re:SITE	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:03 PM
Re:SITE	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:10 PM
Re:SITE	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:13 PM
Re:Plan of the Day	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:59 PM
We have HERMINE	MikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	jlauderdal	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:28 PM
NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb	bloodstar	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:27 AM
Re: winds at 70?	john03	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:52 AM
which way?	john03	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:03 AM
Re: which way?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:05 AM
Re: NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:44 AM
Frances-One For the Record Book	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:07 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:23 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:29 AM
Re: Take a look here	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 AM
Re: Take a look here	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:24 AM
gaston...	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:49 AM
Re: gaston...	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:02 AM
Frances	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:01 AM
Re: Frances	EMS	Sun Aug 29 2004 09:24 PM
Re: Frances	LadyStorm	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:09 AM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:03 AM
Re: Frances	LadyStorm	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:13 AM
Re: Frances	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:26 AM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:26 AM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:08 AM
Re: Frances	Kevin	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM
Re: Frances	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:09 PM
Re: Frances	cat	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:48 PM
Re: Frances	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:04 PM
Re: Frances	cat	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:32 PM
GOM	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:19 PM
glad sight is back up	LoisCane	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:37 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	Kevin	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:58 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:01 PM
Re: Glad sight is back up	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:41 PM
Re: Frances	MikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:46 PM
Re: Frances	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:53 PM
Frances	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Frances	LBlack	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:16 PM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:54 PM
Re: Frances	Cocoa Beach	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:29 PM
Re: Frances	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:16 PM
Re: Frances	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:17 PM
Re: Frances	Hurric	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:11 PM
Re: Frances	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:12 PM
Re: Frances	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:24 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:37 PM
Re: Frances	ShaggyDude	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:42 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:49 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:19 PM
Re: Frances	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:27 PM
Re: Frances	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:35 PM
Re: Frances	Jeanine	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:33 PM
Re: Frances	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:27 PM
Being sarcastic here. J/K around	Robert	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:12 PM
Re: Being sarcastic here. J/K around	melissa1211	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:14 PM
Re: Frances	Maitalnd, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:05 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:00 PM
Re: Frances	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:08 PM
Re: Frances	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:08 PM
Re: Frances	Redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:13 PM
Re: Frances	LBlack	Sun Aug 29 2004 07:54 PM
Re: Frances	Maitland, FL	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:49 PM
Re: glad sight is back up	redbird	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:47 PM
Re: Frances	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:15 PM
Re: Frances	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:25 PM
Re: Frances	anony	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:50 PM
Re: Frances	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:57 PM
moving west now..	rickonboat	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:55 PM
Re: moving west now..	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:00 PM
Re: moving west now..	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:37 PM
Re: moving west now..	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:35 PM
Re: moving west now..	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:50 PM
Re: moving west now..	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:28 PM
Re: Frances	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:33 PM
Re: Frances	troy2	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:45 PM
Re: Frances	RevRandy	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:31 PM
Re: Frances	GRFLA	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:58 PM
overall tropics	Rabbit	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:20 PM
Re: overall tropics	scottsvb1	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:33 PM
08L.NONAME	Rabbit	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:37 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Clark	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:06 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Rabbit-logout	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:17 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:18 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	James88	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:14 PM
Re: 08L.NONAME	Ed in Va	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:42 PM
Re: overall tropics	Keith234	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:32 PM
Re: Frances	HCW	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:56 PM
Re: Frances	Ricreig	Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM
Re: Frances	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:08 AM
Re: Frances	Hurric	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:33 AM
Gaston Weather	zacros	Sun Aug 29 2004 06:44 AM
Re: Frances-One For the Record Book	mikeG	Sun Aug 29 2004 05:18 AM
Evening...	LI Phil	Sat Aug 28 2004 08:00 PM
Re: Evening...	Ricreig	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 PM
GFS track...	LI Phil	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 PM
Re: Evening...	javlin	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Evening...	LI Phil	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:54 PM
Re: Evening...	meto	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:07 PM
Historical comparisons to Frances	LoisCane	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:15 PM
Re: Historical comparisons to Frances	SC Bill	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:46 PM
Re: Historical comparisons to Frances	danielw	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:26 PM
Re: Forecast Advisory	danielw	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 PM
Re: Forecasted slowdown in forward speed	LoisCane	Sat Aug 28 2004 11:18 PM
ps... gfdl	LoisCane	Sat Aug 28 2004 11:45 PM
Re: ps... gfdl	Steve	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:29 AM
Re: Hard to follow that	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:41 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:50 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	javlin	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:05 AM
Next recon?	JayBB	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:26 AM
Re: Next recon?	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:27 AM
Re: Next recon?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:41 AM
Re: Gaston update	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:09 AM
Re: Gaston update	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Night Owl	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 04:29 AM
Re: Next recon?	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 03:09 AM
Re: Gaston	Weather2	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:51 AM
Re: Heads up for Florida	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 12:56 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:06 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:19 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:34 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:56 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	javlin	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:43 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	palmetto	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:03 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	Frank P	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:06 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	BillD	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:43 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	palmetto	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:10 AM
Re: Names	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 02:08 AM
Re: E Carib. ridge	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:37 AM
Re: Sat loops	danielw	Sun Aug 29 2004 01:33 AM
Re: Forecast Advisory	JustMe	Sat Aug 28 2004 11:18 PM
Re: Forecast Advisory	FlaRebel	Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 PM
Recon	zacros	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 PM
Re: Evening...	zacros	Sat Aug 28 2004 08:53 PM
Curious thought from an Idle mind	DMFischer	Sat Aug 28 2004 08:49 PM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	VolusiaMike	Sat Aug 28 2004 08:54 PM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Frank P	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:13 PM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:49 PM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Frank P	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:01 PM
Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 28 2004 10:15 PM
UKMET	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Aug 28 2004 09:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 28 2004 07:58 PM

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