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Jason M
Weather Watcher

Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
Get Ready
      Thu Aug 22 2002 09:40 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook

There will be no tropical storm formation in the Atlantic basin over the next three days. What has me concerned, is how conditions over the Atlantic are ABNORMALLY favorable for development.

Tropical Weather Discussion

The area of interest in the western Caribbean has move inland as expected. This wave will not move into the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, development won't occur. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. Now the ITCZ is very active with a train of waves stretchign from the eastern Caribbean and eastward through Africa. However, none of these waves show signs of any development. The most impressive wave is over the coast of Africa. this wave will have to be monitored as conditions are becoming more and more favorable each day. But like I said, its not whats out there right now thats making me nervous.

Why are conditiosn suddenluy becoming so favorable for development. Well there are two answers to this question #1 The Azores high has weakened dramtically. In addition, the high is moving farther north, near the Azores Islands. #2 The negative "wet" phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is now beginning to influence the weather across the Atlantic basin. Just take a look at the Atlantic combined genesis parameters...

Atlantic combined genesis parameters

This image is based on subsidence, vertical shear and instability. Obviously, conditions in the Atlantic have changed considerably over the last few weeks. When are we going to see some developlment? Rather soon! If we don't get at least one named storm within two weeks I will be surprised. the overall pattern is setting up for a burst of activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation is expected to stay negative through the majority of September (Which favors development in the southewest Atlantic), The Azores high should remain weak, the wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is now in place, below average SLP across the west Atlantic will all favor a burst of activity. I almost forgot to mention the latitude of the ITCZ. You hear all this stuff abotu the Azores high still keeping the ITCZ supressed to the south. Well this is no longer the case. Want evidence? Take a look...

Mean Postion of the ITCZ

In addition, El Nino could enhance subtropical development towards the end of the season. A burst of activity beginning within the next couple of weeks and lasting through October is not all that unlikely.

I almost forgot to mention one thing. We will have ridging in the upper levels over much of the Mean Development Region. This is an enhancing factor that will support activity. Sooner or later these waves will get their act together. They might not develop right off the African coast, but possibly farther west. Get ready!


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