Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms

Gary Gray is OKAY but he turned me off after attempting to spin his "great" 2002 forecast as even good. It was sub-mediocre. Long time readers of this site know that I was all over him in 2002 because he just wasn't getting it. His whole seasonal premise was aimed at the Outer Banks with every storm missing by as close as 100 miles due east. (It was a bit more technical, but that was the bottom line).

As I said last night, I think Frances takes aim at southern North Carolina. I don't know why I picked that out on the Thursday thread at S2K, but it seemed reasonable. There's every argument between a Florida, a North Carolina or no landfall at all. All the ideas are plausible. But the bottom line is we're just going to have to wait. This should be an anxious week as the US gets prepared for its 5th (and possibly 6th *see below* landfalling named storm).

I did pretty good with Gaston. I liked the idea of a landfalling tropical storm (possibly high-end) that would drop localized 10"+. It seems possible that some areas may end up with 15+ before it's all said and done. Gaston still presents nicely on the Wilmington radar.

Bastardi's calling for landfall of Hermine possibly in Massachusetts or Rhode Island tomorrow night. He likes the idea of a 40-50mph storm bringing several hours of rain squalls. If Hermine follows Joe's course (and lookout eastern Long Island too), it will be the 2nd of probably 3 American landfalls in this 10 day period. Joe's making waves today that he cut his initial landfall intensity forecast after discussions with some of his bosses. He said it was far into record territory but had to shave it off just because. He's now thinking his record territory (anyway) numbers may end up being underdone for the season.

But my goodness what a pattern. I told my bosses that the preseason numbers were higher than the record, and I trimmed them to what was 2.5 above normal. The numbers heavily weigh on the intensity trend scale I have developed that you see on the post with the wave look. And the mid season update, with the extra points tacked on actually took it over the record. But I have never seen a set up like this for systems to hit the United States. With the overall pattern the way it is, the water temps the way it is, it may wind up being a case of the extreme forecast not being extreme enough. Certainly with Charley's damage, and the threat of more big storms, the dollar cost of this years season will be the highest ever.

He also cautioned that what he's watching now, depending on how far northeast Frances ends up will potentially open up the western and central gulf for home brew 6-8 days after Frances. if he hits that (after catching the Gaston/Hermine pattern development), even his most serious detractors would have to acknowledge there was some method to his madness.

Steve

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