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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: From the 11pm discussion
      Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM

...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL IS
SIMILAR. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.
...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.



Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 11:18 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms delta   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms delta   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Link to current conditions in Antigua Cocoa Beach   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:35 AM
. * * Got one of my gut feelings right. Cocoa Beach   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms JustMe   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Tom-OrmondBch   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ed in Va   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Frances track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Floridacane   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Frances track hankie   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Frances track SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Frances track recmod   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances track-GFDL model doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Hermine Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Colleen A.   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment CAPE CORAL   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment HCW   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:50 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Frank P   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... troy2   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:26 PM
. * * 18Z GFS joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: 18Z GFS Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 18Z GFS ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... BillD   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track alan   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Rasvar   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Allison   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Frances track scottsvb1   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Hurric   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Frances track RICHIE AT WORK   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Cane Watcher   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:37 AM
. * * 97L Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 97L Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 97L jbcmh81   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L troy2   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: 97L Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L RICHIE AT WORK   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Models On Frances rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 97L ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Frances Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ed in Va   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Larry   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Frances track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Rasvar   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Gaston Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:14 AM
. * * models Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:53 AM
. * * Re: models Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Re: models rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: models jth   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:01 AM
. * * Re: models melissa   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: models ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Frances track rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms meto   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: From the 11pm discussion danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms et1516   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms et1516   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:33 PM
. * * NOGAPS Robert   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: TWC danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Models use of history ConcernedinMiami   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Feedback RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Feedback Steve   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Feedback AgentB   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Feedback S. Hirschb.   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Feedback Dennis S   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Official NWS Forecasts WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Keith234   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Models use of history Jeffmidtown   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 06:50 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update summercyclone   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:02 AM
. * * Lest we forget... Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Lest we forget... LONNY307   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Model Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:31 PM
. * * West Gulf! SoonerShawn   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: West Gulf! danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: West Gulf! Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:03 PM
. * * triad on the 29th HanKFranK   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:00 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:16 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Frances danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:38 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Keith234   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath h2ocean   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Frances' Wobbles rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles BabyCat   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Recon MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:27 PM

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