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HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA. HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. #RAFAEL
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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Td#18
ADV#4A 12:00 pm EDT
15.1N 76.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Frances track
      Mon Aug 30 2004 09:05 AM

Frances seems to be behaving according to plan as I read the NHC discussion today. Sattelite bears out a due west, perhaps slightly south of due west track at this time, but according to NHC that is predicted for up to 72 hrs. What I note in that is this behavior is left of the tracks predicted two -three days ago.
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the GFDL, etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
The models on Wednesday are critical in my opinion...as the synoptic data by then should be fairly firm on the race between the trough and the storm.
Something else to watch as a predictive tool could be the ULL to the storm's NW several hundred miles, visible on the WV. If that lifts out to the north, then that could signal the weakness in the ridge that it will follow...if it stays firm to the west then that could indicate the trend to the south for Frances...
Happy speculating.

--------------------
doug

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 30 2004 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms delta   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms delta   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Link to current conditions in Antigua Cocoa Beach   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:35 AM
. * * Got one of my gut feelings right. Cocoa Beach   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms JustMe   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Tom-OrmondBch   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ed in Va   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Frances track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Floridacane   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Frances track hankie   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Frances track SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Frances track recmod   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances track-GFDL model doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Hermine Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Colleen A.   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment CAPE CORAL   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment HCW   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:50 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment Frank P   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... troy2   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:26 PM
. * * 18Z GFS joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: 18Z GFS Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 18Z GFS ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... BillD   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track alan   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... joepub1   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Rasvar   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Allison   Mon Aug 30 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Surf's Up dudes... Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Frances track scottsvb1   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Hurric   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Frances track RICHIE AT WORK   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Cane Watcher   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:37 AM
. * * 97L Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 97L Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 97L jbcmh81   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L troy2   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: 97L Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L RICHIE AT WORK   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 97L Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Models On Frances rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 97L ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Frances Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ed in Va   Mon Aug 30 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Larry   Mon Aug 30 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Frances track doug   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Rasvar   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Redbird   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track LI Phil   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Gaston Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Frances track Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:14 AM
. * * models Rabbit   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:53 AM
. * * Re: models Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Re: models rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: models jth   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:01 AM
. * * Re: models melissa   Mon Aug 30 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: models ShaggyDude   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances track GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Frances track rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 30 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms meto   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: From the 11pm discussion danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms et1516   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms et1516   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:33 PM
. * * NOGAPS Robert   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: TWC danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Models use of history ConcernedinMiami   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Feedback RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Feedback Steve   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Feedback AgentB   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Feedback S. Hirschb.   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Feedback Dennis S   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Official NWS Forecasts WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Keith234   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Models use of history Jeffmidtown   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 06:50 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update summercyclone   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Keith234   Mon Aug 30 2004 08:02 AM
. * * Lest we forget... Ricreig   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Lest we forget... LONNY307   Mon Aug 30 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Model Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 30 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:31 PM
. * * West Gulf! SoonerShawn   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: West Gulf! danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: West Gulf! Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Models use of history Lake Toho   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:03 PM
. * * triad on the 29th HanKFranK   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th alan   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:00 PM
. * * Re: triad on the 29th Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:16 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Frances danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:38 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Keith234   Sun Aug 29 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath Floridacane   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: FL Swath h2ocean   Sun Aug 29 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Frances' Wobbles rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles ShaggyDude   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles BabyCat   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles BillD   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles Ricreig   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Wobbles MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Recon MikeG   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 29 2004 07:27 PM

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