Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions

4:45 PM
The remnants of Gaston are continuing to dump lots of rain and spawning Tornados in southeast Virginia.

The Frances 5PM Update has the track a bit to the left, placing the risk for the Florida Peninsula up higher. Assuming the track verifies, landfall would occur Saturday. It's too early to pinpoint where exactly it will hit too (and what strength). (GA And the Carolinas aren't out of the woods yet either)

Folks along the entire Florida East coast must watch this system over the next few days. Watch for trends in the models. If they trend westward Palm Beach down to Miami will need to watch, if the tracks hold then central Florida will need to watch more

If they trend right, then a brush will happen and the Carolinas will need to keep watch closer. If the more southerly route happens, it could become a gulf concern as well.

To restate the National Hurricane Center, it is extremely important not to focus the exact track, especially at the long ranges the maps show. The hurricane isn't a point, and Frances is a large system. Forecast errors that far out can be off several hundred miles. Don't use the "point track" as a guide right now.

Stay tuned.
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Original Update

Tropical Storm Hermine is getting close enough to Southeastern Massachusetts to cause Tropicla Storm Watches along the coast there, including most of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard. Expect a nasty overnight there.

The remnants of Gaston are near the North Carolina and Virginia borders right now dumping loads of rain and some minor wind.

The biggest question for most people is about Hurricane Frances. This weekend will be interesting for Florida and the Southeast. It becomes another race for recurvature similar to other storms with this path in the past... The question does it reach Florida before it curves or not?

It is indeed prudent to begin thinking of advanced preperations for the storm on the labor day weekend in Florida and southeast.

Although its still a little too soon to tell where it may wind up. I'd suspect to know somewhat better Wednesday. Models have trended left and right over the last day or two (left would mean more impact for Florida, right would put the Carolinas in the eye) Of course projections that far into the future aren't worth much.

With the latest model runs, it trended back left again. But I suspect it'll change again. Beware the hype with the storm, but keep focused on it during the week if you live along the areas including east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas

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