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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane History

Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




Re: 2002 and 2003
      Tue Aug 27 2002 01:07 PM

ed.. dont ya think maybe youve gone off the deep end with the low number forecasting? when was the last year with no majors? youre calling for four more systems, two of them hurricanes.. something we could get in a week were shear to let up during and mjo wet cycle. the pacific has responded, only makes sense to assume the atlantic will respond and soon. i wont be buying any slow season forecasts until maybe mid or late september.. if things come together right for two or three weeks you can get half a dozen or more storms no problem.. and recent years have shown a tendency to go in bursts. if the basin is about to go hot after a slow, erratic early season.. then we've been here before.
well, one big difference.. nobody was quoting and requoting slow analog years, comparing their persistent features to those this year. to complicate, ive heard quite a spread of analog years since last fall... maybe the basin conditions are in constant transition. my 12-8-4 confidence has pretty much waned, but not ready to believe that this year will be unusually slow.
HF 1308z27august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2002 and 2003 Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Aug 27 2002 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 2002 and 2003 Kevin   Wed Aug 28 2002 10:14 PM
. * * crow, ed? Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 29 2002 08:05 PM
. * * Re: 2002 and 2003 Anonymous (HF)   Tue Aug 27 2002 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 2002 and 2003 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2002 02:47 AM

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