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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
Rem Alberto
ADV#13 10:00 pm EDT
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Possible Development/Invest 92L
      Tue Aug 27 2002 10:26 PM

It is certainly one of the better CV waves of this season - which probably isn't saying too much since there hasn't exactly been a rash of them. It faces some significant difficulties. The focus of circulation seems to be located at about 8N - and nothing much ever gets going at that low a latitude. Water temps are okay between 23W and 30W but they turn a bit cool again between 30W and 45W. Stiff westerly shear exists down to about 7.5N between 23W and 30-31W, but the shear relaxes between 30W and 40W and then it picks up again. So the area of least shear is also the area of marginal SSTs. In a couple of days, the wave should move more to the WNW which would be more favorable from the standpoint of circulation development, but the westerly shear gets stronger as you head north of west. If this one can hold together until it gets to 60W then it might have a chance, but right now the odds are against it.

Added: NRL has started Invest 92L - with a center at 7.2N
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 27 2002 11:03 PM)

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* Possible Development Jason M Tue Aug 27 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development/Invest 92L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 27 2002 10:26 PM

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