Cape Verde wave: First of all, all of the people who are naysaying this type of wave could very well be eating crow in a couple of weeks. Not here...but on other message boards. I take Cape Verde systems very seriously and this one is no exception. Let me state a couple of obs. with this wave:
1. Well organized with plenty of convection.
2. There could be two vorticities with this right now, but as the system becomes better organized it should pull all of it's convection together.
3. It's at a low latitude, so there will not be any type of interference with a w/wnw course at this time.
So that's that. Now onto the future...a bit more uncertain. However, I would like to ask this question: How many of these Cape Verde waves amount to nothing when they develop this far out in August/September? There is not too many. A lot of people on other message boards say this one is a gonner by 40W... not at all true. Those two waves in the western Atlantic that are finally being watched are going to be aided by the upper-level high building into the western Atlantic by late this week. Is this wave going to be excluded from these favorable conditions once it gets further west? Probably not. Steering should be west to west-northwest, as I said. After 84-130 hours, the strength plays a big role in where the system goes. I'm not willing to poke my head at that this early. From some reason I keep thinking of Georges and Bertha similarities with this wave. Also, we should have TD4 with this tonight or early tomorrow.
Here is a good poll...
That was that...now onto the western Atlantic waves. The one east of the Bahamas has convection right now and has a fair signature on satellite imagery. This is due to westerly shear which can be depicted by clouds blowing off to the east. As mentioned, an upper-level ridge is building in and this could allow for some slow development of this system. Anyone from say...Jupiter, Florida to the Outer Banks of NC should monitor the progress of this system through this week. If this system develops, things could get messy this weekend. Ahhh...not just any weekend, just in time for Labor Day Weekend!
Also...there is a wave moving off of Africa. This one is not as well defined as the previous one. Development should be minimal in the short-term do to the following:
1. Its high in latitude already.
2. Waters are somewhat marginal where it will come off at.
3. Future TD4/Dolly would impede development for awhile, at least.
There are two more games around that are much more important, we may only have to watch this second wave in the long-term, if at all.
Now it's time to hit the books...Spanish test/Biology exam tomorrow. It's always good when things are exciting!
Kevin
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