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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#8 9:00 am EDT
17.8N 78.6W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 994mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Models still seem confused on future TD4/Dolly.
      Wed Aug 28 2002 08:21 PM

Here is a link to the tracks...
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropwea/tropmodtracks.htm

I believe that the models won't get a very good handle on this system until it has been classified for a few days. The tracks all seem to have too much of a wnw component in them for such a shallow system and most of them are too slow. Wait a couple of days before any of the models can be deemed reliable with this system. Also, the UKMET now holds the system through 7 days instead of dissipating the system like it did previously. The bottom line: this one will be slow to develop through 72-84 hours, reaching moderate to strong TS strength at that time. After that, the environment should become more favorable for rapid intensification. Despite what some are saying, at least a moderate threat to the islands by the early to mid portion of next week is possible. Things will become more clear as time wears on. Better get some rest...we have some long, fun, and exciting days and nights ahead perhaps.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* On the 'Verde' of a New System? CFHCAdministrator Wed Aug 28 2002 08:21 PM
. * * It's here! SirCane   Thu Aug 29 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: It's here! Anonymous   Thu Aug 29 2002 10:29 AM
. * * Re: It's here! Anonymous   Thu Aug 29 2002 11:19 AM
. * * 93L Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 29 2002 12:16 PM
. * * burst or bust Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 29 2002 03:40 PM
. * * ok ok, one more cor Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 29 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: ok ok, one more cor Anonymous   Thu Aug 29 2002 03:48 PM
. * * What I notice Anonymous   Fri Aug 30 2002 09:00 AM
. * * Could be TD4 soon Alex k   Wed Aug 28 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Interesting note for the Gulf and Texas... Steve   Wed Aug 28 2002 10:15 PM
. * * higher Anonymous (HF)   Wed Aug 28 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Ship reports Robert   Wed Aug 28 2002 11:19 PM
. * * 92L etc Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 29 2002 07:47 AM
. * * Re: 92L etc JustMe   Thu Aug 29 2002 08:25 AM
. * * Still acting up Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Back from studying for a couple hours... Kevin   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:44 PM
. * * Models still seem confused on future TD4/Dolly. Kevin   Wed Aug 28 2002 08:21 PM
. * * NRL has it as noname garyb   Thu Aug 29 2002 09:30 AM
. * * Re: NRL has it as noname Cycloneye   Thu Aug 29 2002 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Models still seem confused on future TD4/Dolly. Anonymous   Thu Aug 29 2002 08:46 AM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:26 PM
. * * eh Anonymous (HF)   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:30 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:09 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 03:35 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Cycloneye   Wed Aug 28 2002 04:17 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? caneman   Wed Aug 28 2002 04:31 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System?Mebbe not.... Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 01:03 PM
. * * IHS? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 05:08 PM
. * * Cape Verde wave and western Atlantic waves. Kevin   Wed Aug 28 2002 03:10 PM
. * * many things of interest Anonymous (HF)   Wed Aug 28 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 12:50 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 11:10 AM
. * * 11am twd Anonymous (HF)   Wed Aug 28 2002 11:39 AM
. * * TD this afternoon or night Cycloneye   Wed Aug 28 2002 11:49 AM
. * * Re: TD this afternoon or night Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 12:28 PM
. * * Re: TD this afternoon or night Caneman   Wed Aug 28 2002 12:50 PM
. * * Re: TD this afternoon or night Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 10:55 AM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Wed Aug 28 2002 10:58 AM
. * * Re: On the 'Verde' of a New System? Anonymous   Tue Aug 27 2002 10:05 PM
. * * 92L Anonymous (HF)   Tue Aug 27 2002 10:59 PM
. * * TD very soon Cycloneye   Wed Aug 28 2002 09:57 AM

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