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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)
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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Latest GFS.....
      Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM

This reminds me of how I felt about Charley's track for the three-four days prior to landfall. I felt that the NHC had it's basic movement about right. What they couldn't tell was where exactly would Charley cross the coastline. I think Frances presents the same problem: the track to the WPB area seems right. A slow down, the ridge builds back in and wins round one pushing her into Florida somewhere, but how far north she gets is the question. Ridge then retreats with help from low moving into the Plains, allowing her to go along the western edge, or north thru the state. But the entry point could be anywhere from WPB to Daytona, IMO. I think the NHC's track in a day or two will end up looking pretty much like what the track at 11pm looked like, with some changes maybe in location, but not how she gets there.

Since these storms have such a sick sense of humor, find the spot on the east central coast with the most trailer parks, and that's where the darn thing will go in. It always seems that way.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM
. * * Stair stepping back west? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: eyewall replacement? mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 AM
. * * Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:11 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances jlauderdal   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Headings danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:45 AM
. * * interesting john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:08 AM
. * * Re: recon Steve   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:03 AM
. * * Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:00 AM
. * * Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... N. Brevard   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... cyclone_head   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:30 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:07 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Models john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... WeatherNLU   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:54 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:44 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:42 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas HurriK   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:32 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:53 AM
. * * 11pm Stewart Discussion Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans sullynole   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 AM
. * * Watches / Warnings Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Stewart fans SirCane   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:58 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Stacey's Fan Club... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Stacey's Fan Club... ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:44 AM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM

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