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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
tracking
      Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM

One thing I have noticed is that almost every forecast has shown that the cain is suppossed to start a more northerly jaunt (45 degrees or so) but it has yet to do so. This is making me suspicious that the models have this cain too far north as many have suggested.

7 days before Charley hit I called for a Tampa hit. I was wrong by 40 miles. I couldn't get a feel on Frances until now - I think she is heading more south than we think - Miami to WBP. I think that the postor whose friend is retired from NOAA that posted here 3 days ago is going to be correct..

Miami to Ft. Meyers or WPB to Sarasota.. hooks right and up the Gulf.

Last night channel 10 news showed a graphic with the then current track heading towards Jax that Tampa would still see 85 - 100 mph winds. I think 110 - 130 is going to be more like it and if we see the west side of the storm and it slows to make it's turn, we might see some 10 feet of water here on the beaches too. I posted this earlier (thanks to Phil's help in me finding it) and will do so again - it shows the water surge in the Tampa area based on the size of the cain: http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov (you will need quicktime to see it)

I'm boarding up and outta here. Stay safe everyone.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM
. * * Stair stepping back west? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: eyewall replacement? mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances jlauderdal   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Headings danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM
. * * interesting john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:08 AM
. * * Re: recon Steve   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... N. Brevard   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... cyclone_head   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Models john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... WeatherNLU   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation AgentB   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas HurriK   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances javlin   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:53 PM
. * * 11pm Stewart Discussion Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans sullynole   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Watches / Warnings Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans SirCane   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Stacey's Fan Club... LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Stacey's Fan Club... ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM

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