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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

RedingtonBeachGuy
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Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL

tracking
Wed Sep 01 2004 09:26 AM

One thing I have noticed is that almost every forecast has shown that the cain is suppossed to start a more northerly jaunt (45 degrees or so) but it has yet to do so. This is making me suspicious that the models have this cain too far north as many have suggested.

7 days before Charley hit I called for a Tampa hit. I was wrong by 40 miles. I couldn't get a feel on Frances until now - I think she is heading more south than we think - Miami to WBP. I think that the postor whose friend is retired from NOAA that posted here 3 days ago is going to be correct..

Miami to Ft. Meyers or WPB to Sarasota.. hooks right and up the Gulf.

Last night channel 10 news showed a graphic with the then current track heading towards Jax that Tampa would still see 85 - 100 mph winds. I think 110 - 130 is going to be more like it and if we see the west side of the storm and it slows to make it's turn, we might see some 10 feet of water here on the beaches too. I posted this earlier (thanks to Phil's help in me finding it) and will do so again - it shows the water surge in the Tampa area based on the size of the cain: http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov (you will need quicktime to see it)

I'm boarding up and outta here. Stay safe everyone.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:26 AM
Stair stepping back west?	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:55 AM
Re: eyewall replacement?	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 AM
Forecast discussion -- Frances	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:06 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:11 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:21 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:20 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:21 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:18 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	jlauderdal	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:22 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	alan	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:29 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:48 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	alan	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:00 AM
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:47 AM
Re: Headings	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:45 AM
interesting	john03	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:42 AM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 AM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:08 AM
Re: recon	Steve	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:03 AM
Hebert's box/square misinformation	Brad	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:35 AM
Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation	Brad	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:00 AM
Latest GFS.....	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:17 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	joepub1	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:26 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	joepub1	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:36 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:43 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	N. Brevard	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:52 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Bev	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:47 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	joepub1	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Pam in Vero	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:05 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:02 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:02 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	cyclone_head	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:09 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:30 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:42 AM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:05 AM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:07 AM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:22 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:00 AM
Re: Tropical Models	john03	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:29 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:08 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:27 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	javlin	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	WeatherNLU	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:46 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	rjp	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:54 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:44 AM
Re: Latest GFS.....	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 04:24 AM
Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation	AgentB	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:42 AM
Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:40 AM
Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:53 AM
Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:17 AM
Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas	HurriK	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	javlin	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:32 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:41 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:53 AM
11pm Stewart Discussion	Justin in Miami	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM
Re: Stewart fans	sullynole	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 AM
Re: Stewart fans	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:04 AM
Re: Stewart fans	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 AM
Watches / Warnings	Justin in Miami	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:17 AM
Re: Stewart fans	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:14 AM
Re: Stewart fans	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:20 AM
Re: Stewart fans	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:14 AM
Re: Stewart fans	SirCane	Wed Sep 01 2004 03:58 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 AM
Stacey's Fan Club...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:51 AM
Re: Stacey's Fan Club...	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:56 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:40 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:41 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:44 AM
Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM

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