#Beryl on track to become a Major while crossing or near the Windwards. Low behind it now Invest #96L with 70% odds. #94L in Bay of Campeche as well. What month is this?
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
304 (Idalia)
, Major:
304 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia)
Major:
304 (Idalia)
I wouldn't bank on TD Four's long-term prospects. The AVN, NOGAPS, and MRF all show the persistence of an upper-level trough to its northwest through at least 72 hours. Assuming this system continues tracking WNW, it will probably get picked up by the upper-low. At the very least, it will encounter strong westerly shear.
So in the final analysis, I wouldn't be surprised if it recurves well east of the Antilles. Of course, nature is full of surprises, but this is the way I think things look for now.
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