This is not exactly how Frances is going to come ashore. This is the best guess for the moment, and will continue to change. Who ever on the east FL coast gets this will know for sure maybe an hour or two before it makes landfall, so it's best to be prepared for the worse. Because of the way it is going to come at the coast, many people are going to feel the affects. And if they miss the forecast, and they do everytime by at least a small margin, it more than likely will be to the right. The Cape, Daytona (again!!) and Jax need to be ready for a really bad day Sunday just in case. It's not going to be a good day for most of us anyway, this thing is huge and forecast to stay a Cat 4. The rainfall amounts projected by the NHC have been small up to now because Frances hasn't run right over somebody, but you could be inside the rainy part of the storm for well over a day this weekend if you're in FL. If anybody comes up with a graphic showing how much rain FL could get, I'd be interested in seeing it.
IMO, I think this is a good forecast, but I also think it's going to get bumped up the coast just a little before it's all over. I do not see the center getting into the gulf at all. My call from 72 hrs out would be Sat afternoon, the Cape to Daytona, Cat 4, and not moving in any hurry.
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