Here's a detailed discussion about the possibility of a track across FL into the GOM. I don't know anything about the folks who produced this, but it certainly makes for an interesting read. Maybe Jason could comment on it?
The latest signs are not promising at all. Some of the models, like the GFS and CMC are indicating a turn too far to the north, without any support from the 500mb vorticity fields. There are no ML troughs or lows that could turn the system. The UKMET responds to this condition by turning the storm to the west and into the Gulf of Mexico as does NASA and NOGAPS. Second, the trough over Louisiana is farther north than yesterday. These two scenarios are quite grim for Florida. However, what the models are in agreement with and are in touch with reality is that there will be somewhat of a WNW motion due to the weak upper trough. In short, there does not appear to be anything to spar Florida form a landfall. Track guidance is mostly based upon the GFS and the 6Z GFS is unrealistic indicating a SC landfall. While the landfall location is similar near the Palm Beach area although a few tenths to the south of 0900 UTC, the major change is that this forecast now brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a threat to the Florida Panhandle at the end of the period.
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