THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
The ridge could weakn faster, or more, than the models anticipate. I doubt a landfall in Northern Georgia / South Carolina, but somewhere in North Florida is still a good possibility.
What mechanism do they think could weaken the ridge as they imply in the discussion?
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