Hurricane Frances in the Morning

Very tough forcast to give especialy after 72 hours. First with the models we seem them change from run to run so dont accept a path a model shows cause it might change the next run. Can it be right? Of course but wait to see if the model initalizes that positon right to start, then see if it has the last 3-4 runs and shows the same path. If its been on track then that run gets favored but not set in stone. CMC has generally been off to the N of the current track. GFS has been just a tad to the NE over the last 24 hours as is most of the guidance. The tropical model suites have shifted every time the GFS does and the ETA has been 12 hours behind the GFS following tracks it has 12 hours earlier. Nogaps and the GFDL have performed well during the first 24 hours but then diverage with the GFDL more N and the Nogaps more WNW-NW motion,both bring Frances on a decent clip that its going now. Difference between the 2 after 24 hours is the Nogaps been right while the GFDL nudes each run alittle to the sw due to it having to initialize the next run more sw at the start. The UKMET has adjust more NE but was too far N in its ooz run last night to today.
Overall its a clear path to the WNW up to ner Grand Bahama Island. Then the tricky part comes, most models show eigther a drift to the W or a 24 hour turn to just N of W making landfall. Since this could make landfall as early as Sat morning that would be near Boca Raton. But also it could stay up and parrelle the coast near Melbourne then move NNW and head up to Hilton Head by Sunday night or Monday morning. Since that is after 72 hours i wont give that my offical forcast but since I have to go out on a limb here I would agree with the current path with most models up to Grand Bahama island then move towards the coast near Jupitar or Stuart florida on Saturday evening. I think it might go onshore Sat night near there but its at the 84-96 hour period from now. This is in between the Nogaps and Ukmet solutions. This wont be a Andrew system path but like Clark on here said,, more like eigther a Floyd (but alot closer) or Erin from 1995 and move slowly onshore wnw late Sat evening or night. Winds near Cat 4. Watch might go up by 11pm tonight, if not earlier from I would say Dade county up thru Palm beach. scottsvb ( will post more from time to time)

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