Hurricane Frances in the Morning

5PM update has it moving more WNW across FL.

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Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 32

Statement as of 21:00Z on September 01, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeast and central
Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane Watch remains is in effect the northwest Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast
of the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast tonight.

Hurricane center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 941 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 55se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt.......120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt.......160ne 130se 80sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..275ne 160se 160sw 275nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
at 01/1800z center was located near 21.8n 70.5w

forecast valid 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 80sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 75sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Outlook valid 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.0n 71.0w

next advisory at 02/0300z

forecaster Avila

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