the landfall peg i set in southeastern georgia last night is staying put for now. moving the timeframe up to later sunday is the only change.. 3/4 status at impact. only additional reasoning i'll add tonight is that the northern modeling has been converging there, and that the storm has decelerated today and that makes me think it is negotiating a ridge weakness and has the opportunity to nudge nw over time. just my thought.. still see plenty of evidence that it hits further south on the east coast of florida, but going to stick with a northern track. 97L still has a closed low, sheared but vigorously refiring convection.. but nhc ignored it when it looked pretty good the other day, and will likely continue ignoring it until it develops an eye. most of the globals are taking it up in a ridge weakness near 45w later in the week.. still developing it. if it stays quite weak the likely track will be continued wnw in the open atlantic. 98L track began earlier today.. no dvorak on it yet, but the classic easterly wave with a vorticity max and easterly-sheared convection firing just ahead of the surface low/trough. another system globals are slap-happy about, so expect it to develop by/over the weekend. fairly low latitude, and it has a lot of ridging to work its way up through, so it may be something the islands are stressing over next week. HF 2257z01september
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