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Email from a friend:

The NHC is now putting Frances ashore at Vero Beach or so. That's a 24 hour southward movement from Jacksonville. If that holds the Orlando metro area will get blasted like with Charley but worse.

I'm still forecasting a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window, the only Meteorologist (I think) forecasting that landfall, with no changes over the past three days. Even this landfall can still blast the Tampa Bay area but more likely a Sarasota to Ft. Myers window. A path south of Miami through the Florida Keys and/or Florida Straits is also "possible".

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

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Basically, Mr. Giella knows what is going on internally at the NHC this evening? Vero Beach is further south of the 5PM forecast, which basically showed a Melbourne landfall. The track (internally) shifted southward?

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