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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Bev
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...

Re: Now it's a tad more clear...
Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 PM

I posted the message below at 5:44 today in the old forum but didn't receive any answers until the latest 11 p.m. nhc discussion. I'm glad to have it answered. Data errors! ugh.

My original forecast two days ago in the forum was for
Islamorada/Mobile based on the ridge not weakening. I don't believe it will go that low at this point, assuming the newest discussion is correct re the ridge a 290 track would be closer to Miami with Marco Is. exit, then skirt north between the trough and the ridge?

Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
#22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply

I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the GFDL to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.

In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.

See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from Charley.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Frances in the Evening	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Neptune	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	52255225	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	MikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:10 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	spook	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Mooshie-SC	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:20 PM
Re: best sat ever seen...	MIkeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:25 PM
wobbles, eyewall stunts	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:32 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	rickonboat	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:38 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	WeatherNLU	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:39 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	Rasvar	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:07 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:14 PM
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts	Rasvar	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:26 PM
11:00 will be telling...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:21 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:41 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	Brett Adair	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
Dropsondes.... Big Lot Specials next month	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:02 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
Re: Dropsondes	danielw	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:14 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:18 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:29 PM
11pm Discussion	Justin in Miami	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:38 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:25 PM
Re: Dropsondes	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:27 PM
Re: Dropsondes	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:40 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:33 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:36 PM
Re: Dropsondes	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 PM
Re: Dropsondes	BabyCat	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:44 PM
Re: Dropsondes	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM
Outflow Improving	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:43 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:46 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:48 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 PM
WOW...see comments...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:09 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:20 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:35 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	Redbird	Thu Sep 02 2004 07:19 AM
New Thread	John C	Thu Sep 02 2004 07:24 AM
Re: WOW...see comments...	meto	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM
Re: WOW...see comments...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:14 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	Seele	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:02 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 PM
Re: Outflow Improving	scottsvb1	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 PM
Melbourne Weather Statement	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 PM
Re: Melbourne Weather Statement	RevUp	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 PM
Re: Dropsondes	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:31 PM
Three Key Statements from Stewart..... did you catch em Florida	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 PM
Now it's a tad more clear...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:46 PM
Re: Now it's a tad more clear...	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
Re: Now it's a tad more clear...	Bev	Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 PM
Re: Now it's a tad more clear...	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 PM
Re: Dropsondes	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 PM
Watches	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:24 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	RevUp	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:51 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:43 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	RockledgeRick	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:56 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:02 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:52 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:49 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:05 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:54 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	StormHound	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	RevUp	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:00 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	Rasvar	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:07 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	RevUp	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:26 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	Rasvar	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
Re: 11:00 will be telling...	nppam	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:05 PM
Pretty good loop...	teal61	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:14 PM
Excellent forecast from Gary Gray	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:32 PM
from left field	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:12 PM
Re: best sat ever seen...	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
Re: best sat ever seen...	MikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:47 PM
Re: best sat ever seen...	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
Re: best sat ever seen...	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	HCW	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
Still no Hurricane Watch for South FL	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
Duval County and St. Johns County	Neptune	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:56 PM
Re: Duval County and St. Johns County	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Duval County and St. Johns County	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Humanriff	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 PM
Re: whats up with link?	fred08	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Janill	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Heather	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:10 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	bobbi	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	luki	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	john03	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:27 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Tarpon	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	spook	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Tarpon	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	andy1tom	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:39 PM
GFDL	Doombot!	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 PM
Models	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
Re: GFDL	teal61	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:54 PM
Re: GFDL	Chad	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
Re: GFDL	Doombot!	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:09 PM
Re: GFDL	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
Re: GFDL	Shawn W.	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:13 PM
Re: GFDL	annon.	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:18 PM
Re: GFDL	rjp	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
Re: GFDL	Chad	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:02 PM
Palm Beach County	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:07 PM
Re: GFDL	spook	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 PM
Re: GFDL	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:18 PM
For all you Wobble Watchers	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:23 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:57 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	CantoreFan	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	eligrace	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:04 PM
Cantore	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	Keith234	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:51 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	MikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:56 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	recmod	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:55 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	MikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:02 PM
Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy	zacros	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:49 PM
Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy	nppam	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:57 PM
Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy	Clark	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy	MikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy	PFSThunder	Wed Sep 01 2004 10:08 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:28 PM
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
A request & A challenge...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:53 PM
Frances	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 PM
Re: Frances	Kevin	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Frances	andy1tom	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:02 PM
Re: Frances	ShaggyDude	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Chad	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	52255225	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	JeffSD	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Humanriff	Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
won't get in the gulf with this one...	rickonboat	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:34 PM
Cat 5 Rick	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:58 PM
Re: won't get in the gulf with this one...	52255225	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 PM
Re: won't get in the gulf with this one...	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:37 PM
Eyewall	Doombot!	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:27 PM
Re: Eyewall	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	InitinORL	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	BillD	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	WeatherWoman	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:21 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 09:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	MikeC	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:19 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Chad	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:11 PM
Hurricane Audio...	wxman007	Wed Sep 01 2004 07:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	fred08	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:37 PM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:37 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	SkeetoBite	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Robert	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	andy1tom	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Jeffmidtown	Wed Sep 01 2004 06:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	mikeG	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Frank P	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	LI Phil	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Alex K.	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:39 PM
Upon further review...	Kevin	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:55 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	kelcot	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening	DroopGB31	Wed Sep 01 2004 05:23 PM

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