Maybe it's the contrarian in me, but I am going with a farther north solution. The GFS has taken a beating of late, but now the ETA is much farther N. and E., and so were some of the other models, so now it needs to be seen whether or not bad data was entered. Bolstering this in my opinion, is that I think the stretching out of the storm is an indication it may be trying to turn. Every time a situation like this comes up, I think of Gilbert. It was supposed to turn between the Yucatan Pen. and recurve, but the monster created its own environment, and would not turn. How high is my confidence? It's looking up at my feet.
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