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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered

changes
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:36 PM

an amplification out in the central atlantic is going to erode the subtropical ridge early next week. basically dolly has to stay down and not move wnw for the meanwhile, as amplifications out there tend to get most early developing cape verdes. speaking of which, dont think dolly is quite as strong as 55kt. 45 maybe.
second area on my list is the one near 25/70. persistence and the environment ahead, and the fact that it has been trying to develop down to the sfc. if it pops, the east coast gets hit. it has, by the way, been slowing down.
third in terms of imminent interest is the gulf low. dont follow the take that it's like td4 from aug 2000. that was a tight, semiconvective swirl, this one is quite broad. globals have been predicting this for days, now here it is. probably wont do anything until the chaser wave catches up and spikes the convection. movement unsure, mostly west by models, but could be sw or nw. steering env isnt very strong.
sw caribbean--good looking invest yesterday went without convection for too long. the broad sfc low still seems to be there, but mid level stuff is gone. not going to do anything in this basin unless convection comes back. what hernan in the eastpac does should tell what former 93L will.
wave near the islands.. have to mention it. because bastardi did. env ahead isnt half bad, so once it gets by the shear.. well, have to see what it can do. energy from it could easily catch up to the disturbance at 25/70 and spark it.
nw atlantic: gfdl keeps trying to develop a westward moving storm near bermuda... from the upper tutt low working down? strictly gfdl, but there is forecast to be an amplification in the area, so sfc prog might check out.
HF TLH, FL 1632z30august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	John C	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
I don't see anything in the gulf	SirCane	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 30 2002 11:18 AM
Texas Heads Up for Next Week...	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 12:00 PM
Dolly near hurricane status	Cycloneye	Fri Aug 30 2002 01:16 PM
Re just east of winward islands	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:37 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:48 PM
Troy's post re: 'Looks like 1995'	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:11 PM
Dolly forms!	Rich B	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:49 PM
dolly/93L/elsewhere	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 29 2002 09:12 PM
Dolly will definitely not be an easy recurver/93L.	Kevin	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:12 PM
Thoughts and Comments?	wxman007	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:27 PM
Re: Thoughts and Comments?	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:53 PM
GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:56 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:01 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous-doug	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:18 PM
Re: Greatest threat	Anonymous-doug	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:37 PM
changes	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:36 PM
Re: changes	troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:39 PM
Dolly forecast #1 (albeit late)	Kevin	Fri Aug 30 2002 10:22 PM
GOM Tightening?	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:48 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:35 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:09 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:11 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:40 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 05:43 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:26 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 11:08 PM
Convection trying to refire with Dolly	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:19 AM
Re: Convection trying to refire with Dolly	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:20 AM
Undecided Dolly...forecast #2 (difficult forecast)	Kevin	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:48 AM
my take	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 31 2002 04:34 AM
Re: my take	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 11:08 AM
Re: my take	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 11:46 AM
BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:01 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:50 PM
invest 94L	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:23 PM
Re: invest 94L	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 05:07 PM
Re: invest 94L	Anonymous	Sun Sep 01 2002 02:47 PM
Re: invest 94L	doug	Sat Aug 31 2002 05:16 PM
Re: invest 94L	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:13 PM
Hey Gary!!!!	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:30 PM
Edouard north of Bahamas ???	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:54 PM
DEPRESSION ALREADY?????	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:58 PM
Re: DEPRESSION ALREADY?????	doug	Sat Aug 31 2002 04:49 PM
Dolly forecast #3	Kevin	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:41 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:19 PM
further obs	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 06:40 PM
Gulf low	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 06:56 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:12 PM
I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Kevin	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:41 PM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous-troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:17 PM
East of Islands	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:28 PM
Re: Dolly hotting up fast....	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:29 PM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:17 AM
tomorrow	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:56 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:16 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:03 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:13 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:58 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:57 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	brew	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:25 AM
I agree with both	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 29 2002 11:10 PM
Re: Dolly forms!	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:52 PM
image reminds me of 95	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:53 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:50 PM
2:00 PM EST MODEL RUN ON TD #4	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:16 PM
Intresting Loop	Cocoa Beach	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:10 PM
GFDL TEST 93L	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
Re: GFDL TEST 93L	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:45 PM
TEST ON 93L	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:27 PM
Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:31 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:49 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:58 PM
This is what I see...	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	J.J.	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:21 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:26 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:25 PM

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