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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: my take
Sat Aug 31 2002 11:08 AM

Woke up early this morning and looked at Goes-8. Wave in NW Caribbean, pulsing action at 26/73, 30/60, 20/60, 10/55 - looks like a slow march. 26/73 has to be watched. This could easily be a threat to the SE Coast for heavy rain if nothing else. Anything that might happen in the Gulf won't be evident until Sunday. However, if something becomes apparent, there exists a TS landfall possibility for Tues. or Wed. I haven't looked at this morning's model runs yet to see where everything is going, but I'll get to do that when I wake back up i a few hours.

I don't have a call on Dolly right now one way or another. Earlier, she was looking like a threat to the northern Islands, but NHC says no on the 5am. Critical for Dolly is where her low level center is - assuming she has one, and what strength she's at in 72-96 hours. 50/50 threat or fish spinner right now. If her motion continues WNW then even more NW, the threat is probably over. Original thinking had this motion then a turn back to the west.

All in all, there's a lot of stuff to watch this Labor Day Weekend in the tropics. And speaking of Labor Day, don't forget there are insane drunks all over the roads this weekend. So party it up but make sure you don't do anything stupid behind the wheel. Watch out for the other guy too.

Steve

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	John C	Sat Aug 31 2002 11:08 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
I don't see anything in the gulf	SirCane	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 30 2002 11:18 AM
Texas Heads Up for Next Week...	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 12:00 PM
Dolly near hurricane status	Cycloneye	Fri Aug 30 2002 01:16 PM
Re just east of winward islands	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:37 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:48 PM
Troy's post re: 'Looks like 1995'	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:11 PM
Dolly forms!	Rich B	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:49 PM
dolly/93L/elsewhere	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 29 2002 09:12 PM
Dolly will definitely not be an easy recurver/93L.	Kevin	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:12 PM
Thoughts and Comments?	wxman007	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:27 PM
Re: Thoughts and Comments?	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:53 PM
GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:56 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:01 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous-doug	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:18 PM
Re: Greatest threat	Anonymous-doug	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:37 PM
changes	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:36 PM
Re: changes	troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:39 PM
Dolly forecast #1 (albeit late)	Kevin	Fri Aug 30 2002 10:22 PM
GOM Tightening?	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:48 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:35 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:09 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:11 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:40 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 05:43 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 09:26 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 30 2002 11:08 PM
Convection trying to refire with Dolly	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:19 AM
Re: Convection trying to refire with Dolly	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:20 AM
Undecided Dolly...forecast #2 (difficult forecast)	Kevin	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:48 AM
my take	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 31 2002 04:34 AM
Re: my take	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 11:08 AM
Re: my take	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 11:46 AM
BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:01 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 12:50 PM
invest 94L	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:23 PM
Re: invest 94L	Anonymous	Sat Aug 31 2002 05:07 PM
Re: invest 94L	Anonymous	Sun Sep 01 2002 02:47 PM
Re: invest 94L	doug	Sat Aug 31 2002 05:16 PM
Re: invest 94L	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:13 PM
Hey Gary!!!!	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:30 PM
Edouard north of Bahamas ???	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:54 PM
DEPRESSION ALREADY?????	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Aug 31 2002 03:58 PM
Re: DEPRESSION ALREADY?????	doug	Sat Aug 31 2002 04:49 PM
Dolly forecast #3	Kevin	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:41 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD	Colleen A.	Sat Aug 31 2002 02:19 PM
further obs	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 06:40 PM
Gulf low	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 06:56 PM
Re: GOM LOW	Rich B	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:12 PM
I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Kevin	Thu Aug 29 2002 10:41 PM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous-troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:17 PM
East of Islands	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:28 PM
Re: Dolly hotting up fast....	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 03:29 PM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:17 AM
tomorrow	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:56 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:16 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	troy	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:03 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 04:13 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:58 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:57 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.	brew	Fri Aug 30 2002 02:25 AM
I agree with both	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 29 2002 11:10 PM
Re: Dolly forms!	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 08:52 PM
image reminds me of 95	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:53 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:50 PM
2:00 PM EST MODEL RUN ON TD #4	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:16 PM
Intresting Loop	Cocoa Beach	Thu Aug 29 2002 07:10 PM
GFDL TEST 93L	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
Re: GFDL TEST 93L	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:45 PM
TEST ON 93L	garyb	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:27 PM
Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:31 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:49 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 29 2002 06:58 PM
This is what I see...	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 05:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	J.J.	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:21 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Cycloneye	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:26 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4	Anonymous	Thu Aug 29 2002 03:25 PM

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