Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic

According to our local tv station that just spoke to the hurricane center, the track will shift northward toward Melbourne at 11 pm. Also, here is the latest from my friend Thomas:

Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical troubles.

Barely CAT 4 Frances wobbled right then back to the left due to eye wall reformation this afternoon. She is moving slower at around 9-10 mph on a WNW heading. Visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye but I expect normal eyewall re-development in the next 12-18 hours. On the NHC Amateur Radio Net on 14.325 kc I'm hearing weather reports of sustained winds of in excess of 100 mph in the Bahama Islands.

Though we are still in for some circulation friction, track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 on Saturday afternoon. A good storm chaser location will be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As Frances tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay area after landfall, I expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 Frances is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.

Last but not least I do lower the chances of a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami landfall from 50% to 20% and a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east from 1% to 20%.

Last but not least we now have tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands. Looking at satellite imagery it's already T.S. Ivan. My first impression of Ivan is of a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a CAT 5 threat.

My .02 for today.

Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4

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