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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: Weakening
      Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM

danielw -- indeed it is.

To illustrate this, I used one of the utilities we have here called GEMPAK. Those of you in meteorology are probably familiar with it; for those of you who aren't, simply put, it allows you to display a whole bunch of meteorological data. It's akin to a programming language to display data.

Since it is a rather large file, I have uploaded it to my webserver so as not to clog this webserver down. It is in Adobe PDF format and is about 900kb in size. The file contains a plot of all 12z radio observations from across the eastern US & Bermuda along with three model output runs for comparison -- GFS in lime green, NOGAPS in red, and Eta in a barely readable yellow (my apologies).

You can get the file here:
http://www.northflams.org/misc/500height.pdf

Contours are denoted every 20m, i.e. 5900m, 5920m, and so on. The number in the upper right of each station obervation gives that station's height. Of particular note are how the models handled the height in Bermuda and the heights along the east coast in Charleston and Jacksonville. Only the GFS came close; the other models kept the 5900 and 5920 lines well out to sea. I could do the same for other times and show the same thing -- and this is all without the aid of the radio observations from the G-IV surveillance plane.

Just an interesting piece of info to leave you all with for the evening.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances at 11PM MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM
. * * The gulfstream Alex.K   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The gulfstream JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Weakening Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * slow down.. bobbi   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:Glad to be In javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Movement? SonnerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Movement? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Movement? danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * TWC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * The trend over? Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Here's the rub... LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Here's the rub... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Frances seems to be crawing at the moment Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Weakening BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Weakening HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jaybythebay   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Folks, please... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * hey jason..and Phil and NHC bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re:sats john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:54 AM
. * * Re:sats jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Re:sats bck jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Humanriff   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:02 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re:Orange danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re:Orange john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 AM
. * * Re:NWS Miami update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:43 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Re:LSU john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:52 AM
. * * Re:LSU Becky1322   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:06 AM
. * * Re: sat john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re: sat danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:35 AM
. * * Re:LSU scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:11 AM
. * * Re:LSU 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Re:LSU LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 AM
. * * Frances continues to weaken berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:25 AM
. * * Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure firestar_1   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 AM
. * * Track WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LeftOrlando   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LakeCountySeat   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure rmbjoe1954   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Just in Time danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:40 AM
. * * Subsidence W of Frances? berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 AM
. * * Is Frances a dud? Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Seems like they always....... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... DMFischer   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? maxwellincfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Color Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:55 AM
. * * Re: LSU Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 AM
. * * Re:Dud danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: ridge fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:Orange Timothy   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 AM
. * * Re:sats bck scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 AM
. * * Ivan and Frances Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:21 AM
. * * Re:sats bck fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Tropical storm Ivan Matt033   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Satellites Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 AM
. * * I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 AM
. * * 0304Z Vortex message danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 AM
. * * salt lick HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: salt lick bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Stewart's Discussion Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:32 PM
. * * I am here... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM

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