Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
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Re: Folks, please...
Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
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I'll second that. The mods and admins have been doing a great job handling the increased traffic and bandwidth.
Let's not go hog wild predicting intensification, whether in the Atlantic or the Gulf. 2.5 million people are now under evacuation orders. This could well surpass Floyd, to date the largest peace time evacuation in this nation's history, in terms of number of people evacuated. We can always pray for a quick, safe recurvature out to sea, but the storm has already changed many lives and will likely do so over the next three days. Forecasting this storm is a tough, tough job -- and often times a thankless one.
I've had all of my family and friends in Orlando call or e-mail me asking where the storm is going. I've been telling them south of town for a couple of days. But, what if I were wrong? People make decisions based off of what they hear, whether it's from someone on this board or on television or from the hurricane center. That's why it is important to focus on the storm as a swath and not a point. That's why it's important not to needlessly worry people who are searching for information about the storm.
If you have valid reasoning behind what you think, by all means post it...along with the reasoning. But, please do use discretion in terms of posting statements without anything to back it up with. You never know who could stumble across your information and, despite the disclaimers, use it as advice and make a potentially life-changing decision...for better or worse.
As Phil said at the end of the previous thread, this job is best left to the NWS -- they do know what they are doing. There is room for augmentation however, with valid reasoning, and two highly intelligent, highly competent meteorologists can completely disagree on something like this -- and have valid reasons behind both scenarios. I've seen it happen time after time, particularly with this storm. But, it's best to leave this sort of thing to the pros. Anything I, or Jason, or HF, or anyone posts here should be taken with a grain of salt -- use it to educate yourself, learn more about the science, be prepared...and then review statements from your local emergency management officials, from your local NWS office, and from the NHC. I can't emphasize that enough.
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