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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Frances continues to weaken
Fri Sep 03 2004 08:17 AM

Nice forum here. Anyway, I've looked at all the data as of 4:08 am ET and I expect on the 5 am advisory will maintain Frances as a Category 3 storm, though clearly the 0547Z vortex message clearly shows she's weakening due to subsidence on her NW side and S to SSE shear over her at 300mb. I took a look at the CIMSS data and there is a hint of an eye reappearing and she appears to be regaining her symmetry, though a bit flattened. It may also be noted that Frances may be undergoing an eye wall replacement at this time too. Tops have been cooling over the past couple of hours as well. Looking at the 300mb Analysis and 500 mb Analysis, I"m in agreement with NHC official track, though I wouldn't at all be surprised if this system comes to a virtual standstill at some point late Friday as a blocking ridge continues to slightly build NNW of the storm with axises extending WSW in the GOM and ENE into a another center near Bermuda. If Frances can get away from the shear, the warm Gulf Stream should reintensify her to a CAT 4 before landfall now projected for Saturday night. Recent water vapor imagery shows a decrease in dry air to it's N and NW, so I would think some strengthening is likely.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Frances at 11PM	MikeC	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:17 AM
The gulfstream	Alex.K	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM
Re: The gulfstream	JG	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:09 AM
Weakening	Rabbit	Fri Sep 03 2004 02:52 AM
Re: Weakening	JG	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:07 AM
Re: Weakening	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:10 AM
slow down..	bobbi	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:58 AM
Re:Glad to be In	javlin	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:47 AM
Movement?	SonnerShawn	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:55 AM
Re: Movement?	SoonerShawn	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:56 AM
Re: Movement?	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:09 AM
TWC	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:34 AM
The trend over?	Alex.K	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:23 AM
Here's the rub...	LI Phil	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
Re: Here's the rub...	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:53 AM
Frances seems to be crawing at the moment	Frank P	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Weakening	BabyCat	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:21 AM
Re: Weakening	Jamiewx	Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
Re: Weakening	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
Re: Weakening	jth	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM
Re: Weakening	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
Re: Weakening	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:28 AM
Re: Weakening	HCW	Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
Re: Weakening	jaybythebay	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM
Folks, please...	LI Phil	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:10 AM
Re: Folks, please...	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:41 AM
Re: Folks, please...	FromUpNorth	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:05 AM
Re: Folks, please...	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:09 AM
hey jason..and Phil and NHC	bobbi	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:20 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	LI Phil	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:30 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:42 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	LI Phil	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:09 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:18 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:26 AM
Re: recon	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:39 AM
Re:sats	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:54 AM
Re:sats	jth off	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:56 AM
Re:sats bck	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:58 AM
Re:sats bck	jth off	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:59 AM
Re:sats bck	Humanriff	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:02 AM
Re:sats bck	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:04 AM
Re:sats bck	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:01 AM
Re:sats bck	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:05 AM
Re:sats bck	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:06 AM
Re:sats bck	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:11 AM
Re:sats bck	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:15 AM
Re:Orange	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:25 AM
Re:Orange	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 AM
Re:NWS Miami update	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:34 AM
Re:NWS Key West update	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:43 AM
Re:NWS Key West update	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:46 AM
Re:LSU	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:49 AM
Re:LSU	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:52 AM
Re:LSU	Becky1322	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:15 AM
Re:LSU	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:06 AM
Re: sat	john03	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:15 AM
Re: sat	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:35 AM
Re:LSU	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:11 AM
Re:LSU	666	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 AM
Re:LSU	LadyStorm	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 PM
Frances continues to weaken	berrywr	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:17 AM
Re: Frances continues to weaken	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 AM
Following Lowest Pressure	berrywr	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:36 AM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	firestar_1	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 PM
Track	WXMAN RICHIE	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:32 PM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	LeftOrlando	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:20 PM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	berrywr	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	LakeCountySeat	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:47 AM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:41 AM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	rmbjoe1954	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:49 AM
Re: Just in Time	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:47 AM
Re: Following Lowest Pressure	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:40 AM
Subsidence W of Frances?	berrywr	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:51 AM
Is Frances a dud?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 03 2004 09:09 AM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	52255225	Fri Sep 03 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	RevUp	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:13 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	Rasvar	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	HanKFranK	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 PM
Seems like they always.......	Frank P	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 PM
Re: Seems like they always.......	Jeffmidtown	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:56 PM
Re: Seems like they always.......	DMFischer	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	52255225	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	HCW	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:31 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	Rasvar	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:29 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 PM
Re: Is Frances a dud?	maxwellincfl	Fri Sep 03 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Color Sat pic	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:55 AM
Re: LSU Sat pic	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 09:05 AM
Re: Frances continues to weaken	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM
Re: Frances continues to weaken	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 AM
Re:Dud	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 08:12 AM
Re: ridge	fred08	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:34 AM
Re:Orange	Timothy	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:30 AM
Re:sats bck	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:18 AM
Ivan and Frances	Bloodstar	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:21 AM
Re:sats bck	fred08	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:20 AM
Tropical storm Ivan	Matt033	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:33 AM
Re:sats bck	Rabbit	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:06 AM
Re:sats	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:56 AM
Re:sats	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 07:00 AM
Re: Satellites	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:27 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:59 AM
Re: Maximum Winds	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:05 AM
Re: Maximum Winds	fred08	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:11 AM
Re: Maximum Winds	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:16 AM
Re: Maximum Winds	fred08	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:15 AM
Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC	HCW	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:55 AM
Re: Folks, please...	FromUpNorth	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Folks, please...	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:27 AM
Re: Folks, please...	jth offline	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
Re: Folks, please...	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:00 AM
Re: think comeback.....	fred08	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:17 AM
Re: think comeback.....	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:23 AM
Re: think comeback.....	666	Fri Sep 03 2004 06:59 AM
Re: Colleen...	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:03 AM
Re: Colleen...	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:16 AM
Re: Satellites	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:48 AM
Re: Satellites	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:58 AM
I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC	Frank P	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:38 AM
Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
0304Z Vortex message	danielw	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Folks, please...	jth offline	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:35 AM
Re: Folks, please...	HCRay	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Folks, please...	FromUpNorth	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:34 AM
Re: Folks, please...	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:39 AM
Re: Folks, please...	FromUpNorth	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Folks, please...	HCRay	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:14 AM
salt lick	HanKFranK	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:58 AM
Re: salt lick	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:27 AM
Re: salt lick	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
Re: salt lick	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 05:00 AM
Re: salt lick	bobbi	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:07 AM
Stewart's Discussion	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 03 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Folks, please...	Todd	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:22 AM
Re: Weakening	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:08 AM
Re: Weakening	JG	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:19 AM
Re: Weakening	Clark	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:32 AM
I am here...	wxman007	Fri Sep 03 2004 03:27 AM
Re: Weakening	jth	Fri Sep 03 2004 02:57 AM

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