Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic

12:20pm ET - Afternoon everybody - We're all wondering the same thing we see; will Frances re-strengthen? I am not a professional meteorologist. I was a weather forecaster with the Air Force and I am now working on my degree in meteorology; that said, I've noted some professional meteorologist in this forum and they need to be heard (read). There are and will continue to be diverse points of view, but the boys & girls that bury their noses in these models and there are a few know their craft well. Let's move on: The topic is will this baby regain Category 4? It may. The best way to speak to this is a scorecard - 1) Will it restrengthen? - Gulf stream checks in at 30 to 31C (86 to 88F), shear tendency has decreased by 5 knots, and she continues to have excellent outflow except on the west side, will remain over water at least another 36 hours. 2) Weakening - 300mb shear remains between 15 & 20 knots directly over the system, with upper ridge axis to her SW, inner eye has become disrupted, dry air intrusion is noted on current water vapor imagery as of 1615Z impinging on the CDO on her west and southwest side, some land interaction, slow movement which tends to cool sea surfaces. Category 4? Possible, given how much time we're looking at prior to landfall, we all remember Charley, but the structure of Frances is different now. Category 3? Likely, if she reconsolidates and an eye is re-established prior to landfall. Category 2? 100 knots is nothing to sneeze out, and if the core can't recover, you're looking at a wind field that will continue to expand and what could be sustained hurricane force winds north of the eye for in excess of 24 hours; no picnic if you live on the beach. As for Ivan; he's a long way off, and too many variables to even guess where he's going, but he is on the southern track and a ridge is along for the ride with him. Beyond 5 days it will depend on where that shortwave trough is, and it's longwave cousin. If the shortwave bypasses the system, say hello to Gulf of Mexico; but that's at least 7 days out and there are no models that reliable beyond 5. Next week is the peak of the hurricane season climatologically.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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