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Hurricane Watches are now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay,.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#32 5:00 am EDT
40.2N 41.0W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 966mb
Moving:
Ne at 30 mph
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Hur Leslie
ADV#20 5:00 am EDT
15.6N 40.4W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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Hur Milton
ADV#9 8:00 am EDT
21.8N 92.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 945mb
Moving:
Ese at 8 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
What an Excellent Model
      Fri Sep 03 2004 10:58 PM

What a great model for the complexities of hurricane forecasting Frances has been. On Wednesday before school was cancelled, I talked with my students about the types of conditions that can cause a hurricane to strengthen/weaken. I hope some of them have access to TV's wherever they are riding out the storm so that they can see the causes for the dramatic changes we have seen with Frances today. We also talked about how the forward movement of the hurricane can affect flooding. Unfortunately that aspect has me a little nervous. The problem with Florida is there is nowhere for 8-10 inches of rain to go, much less 15-20 inches! The comments about a possibly large storm surge even with a weakened storm is news that is also unsettling. What factors would contribute to such a large surge? I thought the surge was whipped up by the high winds :?:

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 03 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow gtd   Sun Sep 05 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Weather Disaster or any other kind? We can help Disaster Buddies   Sat Sep 04 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Frances near landfall Clark   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:41 PM
. * * From East Orlando clyde w.   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:32 PM
. * * Re: From East Orlando hntr74   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Re: From East Orlando Hurricaned   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: From East Orlando SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Laurie(England)   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow DutchPeter   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow HMY   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow DutchPeter   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow schmoo   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow StormHound   Sat Sep 04 2004 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow DutchPeter   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow storm 1   Sat Sep 04 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Frank P   Sat Sep 04 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow h2ocean   Sat Sep 04 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow AngB   Sat Sep 04 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow h2ocean   Sat Sep 04 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Kruz   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re:ABC News Now has live FL feed ShanaTX   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow tomm4567   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Hurric   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow tikibar   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Alex.K   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Hurric   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow tikibar   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow DroopGB31   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow tikibar   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow AgentB   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow lisa33811j   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Hurric   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:11 PM
. * * What an Excellent Model cjzydeco   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: What an Excellent Model Rasvar   Sat Sep 04 2004 01:33 PM
. * * And now back to Frances Rasvar   Sat Sep 04 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: And now back to Frances andy1tom   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: And now back to Frances palmetto   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:14 PM
. * * glad board is back up... rickonboat   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: glad board is back up... StormHound   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Re: And now back to Frances EKH2004   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Ashley.m   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:29 PM
. * * Wind Field images SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow erauwx   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow mbfly   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow jim013   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Alberta Canada   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Ronn   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow schmoo   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Rainfall Network RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:58 PM
. * * labor day weekend HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Frances now stationary! berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! Terra   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! HMY   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! jaybythebay   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! spook   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! gailmm   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:00 PM
. * * San Salvador WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Re: San Salvador BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM
. * * Re: San Salvador Bev   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: San Salvador GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! PFSThunder   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM
. * * will wonders never cease? rickonboat   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: will wonders never cease? Terra   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Weakening centauratlas   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:10 PM
. * * The long wait WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:21 PM
. * * Florida residents.... don't underestimate storm surge Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM
. * * Nassau, Bahamas WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:14 PM
. * * tracking the center of Frances Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: tracking the center of Frances Jason Siegel   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: tracking the center of Frances HMY   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: tracking the center of Frances Hurricaned   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Orlando recmod   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Orlando Hurricaned   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:51 PM
. * * South Jog! Kruz   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! recmod   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Casselberry FL at 3:25pm recmod   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm Larry Lawver   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm Jason Siegel   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm AgentB   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm recmod   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm AgentB   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Vortex translated by new comp program... Frank P   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm recmod   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm DMFischer   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm h2ocean   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm gailmm   Sat Sep 04 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:36 PM
. * * pressure at 959mb Bloodstar   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:35 PM
. * * Re: pressure at 959mb AgentB   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Miami, Fl conditions tsunami   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm Hurricaned   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! MrCanard   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! h2ocean   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! dawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:57 PM
. * * if it lingers long enough.... rickonboat   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: if it lingers long enough.... Dawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Great example of an eye crossing alan   Sat Sep 04 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! Alex.K   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! alan   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! Dawn   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: South Jog! VolusiaMike   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:04 PM
. * * SW Seminole County Kevin   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:35 PM
. * * 2nd major squall (SW Seminole County) Kevin   Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: SW Seminole County Mark Bendiksen   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Report from East Orlando clyde w.   Sat Sep 04 2004 03:21 PM
. * * recon? Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: recon? Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: recon? teal61   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: recon? AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: The long wait BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM
. * * Re: will wonders never cease? AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Re: will wonders never cease? SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Frances now stationary! Cane Watcher   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Latest Vortex Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Frank P.... teal61   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:55 PM
. * * looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 03 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Radar SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Radar BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Radar PFSThunder   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Radar AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Just a Thought SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought southflahappygal   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 PM
. * * add some confusion HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: add some confusion LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought southflahappygal   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM
. * * coincidence? Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM
. * * GRRR Robert   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: GRRR LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: GRRR BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM
. * * A cry out to our mets... LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: A cry out to our mets... BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: GRRR h2ocean   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Just a Thought zacros   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM
. * * OK I'll say it alan   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: OK I'll say it alan   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: OK I'll say it HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Radar HMY   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Radar MIDA   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow Kimmie   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Additional Vortex Message Data Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow eligrace   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow WeatherNLU   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow centauratlas   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:13 PM

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