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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Idalia) , Major: 285 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 285 (Idalia) Major: 285 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ivan/onward
      Wed Sep 08 2004 10:13 PM

glad to see things online again. not too crowded yet.. with ivan on the way that isn't going to last.
item #1 is ivan. latest recon pegged the pressure down to 943mb... lowest so far. like frances did this storm has the potential to bottom out as a cat 5.. jamaica is likely the only landmass it would get in that state. modeling has been clustering around the florida peninsula as its u.s. impact point for a couple of days now.. globals that melt the ridge periphery down still offering the only out as a cuba-bahamas storm (of course they aren't exactly getting rid of ivan, just slowing the storm down off the southeast coast as the ridge rebuilds by the middle of next week). i'm going to render my idea right now that ivan will hit somewhere on the west coast of florida.. from the keys up to apalachicola.. between late monday and late tuesday as a cat 3/4. the potential for eleventh hour weakening as with frances exists (weakening ridge/shearing environment late in the game). exactly how disruptive jamaica and cuba are also remains to be seen.
other features...
frances is looking less and less tropical as it rides up the appalachians. substantial rain impact felt across much of the atlantic coastal plain, ga/carolina piedmont, and the appalachians.. coming to an end. tornado threat also decreasing. florida got it worst, but with bonnie, charley and gaston having traversed the region in the last month things are quite wet.. ivan's coming is not going to help things.
97L.. persistent disturbance now no longer a tropical feature.. development as a subtropical system unlikely but possible. system has been slowly closing on the azores in a sheared environment, blocked by ridging to the ne, with a trough digging and breaking away to the west. has been tracked since august 30th.. unusual longevity for an invest.
modeling suggests two low-potential areas of development in the subtropics.. northerly flow behind frances into the gulf merging with an easterly wave, with residual ridging. no organization at this point, but eta suggests a trough will develop near the yucatan later this week.
trough forecast to dig, cut off and retrograde near 30n in the central atlantic.. several clusters of convection associated.. slight potential for this low to become deep layer by associating with surface convection, and acquire tropical characteristics.. once it develops.
waves near 45w, 31w.. and newly emerging. the 45w wave has a moderate chance of development... weak ridging aloft, broad circulation.. unfocused, scattered convection also. hasn't changed profile much since tue, moving w-wnw at around 12mph. low model interest. 31w wave not much different in terms of potential, moving w at lower latitude. characteristics similar.
development clock is ticking with isis having developed in the eastpac.. 5-10 days.
glad to see people coming back on. y'all take it easy.
HF 2212z08september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Back and Tracking Ivan MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 08 2004 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan DroopGB31   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan recmod   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:43 AM
. * * I'm back / Frances Stats. WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan clyde w.   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan ShanaTX   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:07 AM
. * * happy to see you back bobbi   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun Fred08   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun rd522525   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:38 AM
. * * Major Hurricanes..Major Winter? Taking forever   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricanes..Major Winter? 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:54 AM
. * * NWS Tampa Earlier Discussion Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:09 AM
. * * My initial thoughts.... wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... DroopGB31   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Before satellite data ShanaTX   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:05 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:04 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:28 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun DroopGB31   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:48 AM
. * * 11:00 ADVISORY 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 AM
. * * East coast damage alan   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:24 AM
. * * Re: East coast damage gailmm   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:35 AM
. * * Re: East coast damage h2ocean   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: East coast damage gailmm   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:34 AM
. * * the state of Ivan MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:14 AM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY 52255225   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Hurricane Alley Spaghetti Run Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:35 AM
. * * MUST READ!!!!! SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Ivan MikeG   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun trinibaje   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Fred08   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? HMY   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Fred08   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:37 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Models MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:50 AM
. * * something you don't see to often JHN   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Wobble... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:46 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? ShaggyDude   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:31 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Tazmanian93   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:54 AM
. * * Accuweather Track Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:09 AM
. * * early take HanKFranK   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: Accuweather Track Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:41 AM
. * * Jeffmidtown SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:45 AM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: happy to see you back LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: happy to see you back docjoe   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: happy to see you back Keith234   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan FireAng85   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Novice question Southern4sure   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:51 PM
. * * WOW! SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan ms0337   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan TropiGal   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Glad to have the site back up and running jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Glad to have the site back up and running mbfly   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Bloodstar   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:23 PM
. * * Ivan the Terrible rickonboat   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Lisa NC   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Mobilian   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Ed in Va   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:48 PM
. * * Florida SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Florida palmetto   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Florida clyde w.   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Florida BSakowicz   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:42 PM
. * * ivan/onward HanKFranK   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:13 PM
. * * Survived Cocoa Beach   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:23 PM
. * * Cocoa Beach SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:31 PM
. * * By the way... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Model data... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Model data... OrlandoNative   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Model data... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Model data... kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Models SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Models BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Models GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Welcome Back Flhurricanes ticka1   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Models wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Re: By the way... trinibaje   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Ivan Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Hebert Box TropiGal   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Rad   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Rad   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Brad   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box trinibaje   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan LI Phil   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:04 PM

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