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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Milton) , Major: 43 (Milton) Florida - Any: 43 (Milton) Major: 43 (Milton)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Models
      Wed Sep 08 2004 09:50 PM

The GFS was too far to the right on Frances, and that trend seems to be continuing. I will give it high marks for consistency though. It has (for several runs) taken it east of Florida, and then looped it back into the mid atlantic. With a storm like this, it is my opinion that the farther east solutions are going to be hard to achieve. I still expect it to end up in the NW Caribbean. Gilbert never was able to make the predicted turn, and it intensified rapidly after hitting Jamaica. If my memory is correct, it was about 135 mph over Jamiaca, and stregthened to 888 mil. and 180 mph after that.
The ULL looks to be moving away faster than Ivan is approaching. It may be enhancing the outflow, and the eyewall now looks like a perfect doughnut. I think this is Cat 5 by 11 pm. This also might make it harder to turn, although it looks to have wobbled back to the right on the last pic.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Back and Tracking Ivan MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 08 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Clark   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Clark   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan DroopGB31   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan scottsvb1   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan LI Phil   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan recmod   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:43 PM
. * * I'm back / Frances Stats. WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan scottsvb1   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan clyde w.   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan ShanaTX   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:07 PM
. * * happy to see you back bobbi   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun Fred08   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun rd522525   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Major Hurricanes..Major Winter? Taking forever   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricanes..Major Winter? 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:54 PM
. * * NWS Tampa Earlier Discussion Jamiewx   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:09 PM
. * * My initial thoughts.... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... DroopGB31   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Before satellite data ShanaTX   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:04 AM
. * * Re: My initial thoughts.... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun DroopGB31   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:48 PM
. * * 11:00 ADVISORY 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:00 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:04 PM
. * * East coast damage alan   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: East coast damage gailmm   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: East coast damage h2ocean   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: East coast damage gailmm   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:34 PM
. * * the state of Ivan MrSpock   Wed Sep 08 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 ADVISORY 52255225   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Hurricane Alley Spaghetti Run Jamiewx   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:35 PM
. * * MUST READ!!!!! SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Ivan MikeG   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: pretty w/sun trinibaje   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Fred08   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? HMY   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Fred08   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Models MrSpock   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:50 PM
. * * something you don't see to often JHN   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Wobble... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:46 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Tazmanian93   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Accuweather Track Jamiewx   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:09 PM
. * * early take HanKFranK   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather Track Clark   Wed Sep 08 2004 10:25 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Jeffmidtown SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: bigger than Frances? BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:42 PM
. * * Re: happy to see you back LI Phil   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: happy to see you back docjoe   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: happy to see you back Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan FireAng85   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Novice question Southern4sure   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:51 PM
. * * WOW! SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan ms0337   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan TropiGal   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Glad to have the site back up and running jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Glad to have the site back up and running mbfly   Wed Sep 08 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan Bloodstar   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Back and Tracking Ivan jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Ivan the Terrible rickonboat   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Lisa NC   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Mobilian   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible Ed in Va   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Ivan the Terrible jth   Wed Sep 08 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Florida SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Florida palmetto   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Florida clyde w.   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Florida BSakowicz   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:42 PM
. * * ivan/onward HanKFranK   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Survived Cocoa Beach   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:23 PM
. * * Cocoa Beach SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:31 PM
. * * By the way... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:33 PM
. * * Model data... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Model data... OrlandoNative   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Model data... wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Model data... kelcot   Wed Sep 08 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Models SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Models BillD   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Models GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Welcome Back Flhurricanes ticka1   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Models wxman007   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:30 PM
. * * Re: By the way... trinibaje   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:34 PM
. * * Ivan Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Hebert Box TropiGal   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Keith234   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Rad   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Rad   Wed Sep 08 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Brad   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box trinibaje   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan LI Phil   Wed Sep 08 2004 06:04 PM

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